Yes position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $15
- Potential payout
- $199.99
- Potential profit
- $184.99
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$101.99
Polymarket Trader
Baxalay
0x7dc646bff8a26b4fbe4af5f8ea830c949c72b32c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $435.93
- Realized PnL
- $110.89
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $103.95
- Potential payout
- $109.42
- Potential profit
- $5.47
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $7.22
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $99.75
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $0.25
- User PnL
- $1.55
No position
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.8%
- Current value
- $97.8
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $2.2
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $5.8
No position
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 9?
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$23.94
No position
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 6?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.18
- Potential profit
- $20.18
- User PnL
- -$19.8
No position
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.05
- Potential profit
- $20.05
- User PnL
- -$19.78
No position
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$19.05
No position
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $19.98
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $19.99
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.59
No position
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$19.4
No position
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$19.2
No position
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $19.99
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $19.49
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.51
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.13
No position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$19.2
No position
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$19.7
No position
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$19
No position
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $19.99
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.33
No position
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$19.8
No position
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$19.2
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $19.99
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 11?
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$9.68
No position
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 11?
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$9.85
No position
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 18?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$9.84
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on April 1?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.06
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 25?
Ends Mar 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.35
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 27?
Ends Mar 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.16
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 25?
Ends Mar 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 25?
Ends Mar 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.4
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 25?
Ends Mar 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.4
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 24?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.27
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 25?
Ends Mar 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.4
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 24?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.21
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on March 24?
Ends Mar 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.15
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 24?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.85
No position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 28?
Ends Mar 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.68
No position
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 29?
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.62
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 27?
Ends Mar 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.57
No position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on March 29?
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.65
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 22?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.65
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on March 24?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.6
No position
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.4
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on March 22?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.2
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 30?
Ends Mar 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.04
No position
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on March 26?
Ends Mar 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2
No position
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 30?
Ends Mar 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.88
No position
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C or higher on March 27?
Ends Mar 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.45
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 1?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 26?No 98.1% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 25?No 98.9% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 25?No 98.9% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 25?No 98.9% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 25?No 98.3% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 25?No 97% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25?No 99% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25?No 99% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 25?No 97.5% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25?No 99% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 25?No 99% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25?No 98.8% 20 shares