No position
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $7.22K
- Potential payout
- $9.44K
- Potential profit
- $2.22K
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $282.68
Polymarket Trader
inventive
0x7de7cbeba7e2ea14c6445be39d4d46a3cf14a9c8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $68.04K
- Realized PnL
- $10.29K
- Win rate
- 71.4%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 21
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 37%
- Current value
- $3.07K
- Potential payout
- $8.3K
- Potential profit
- $5.23K
- Multiplier
- 2.70x
- User PnL
- $651.6
No position
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.05K
- Potential profit
- $8.05K
- User PnL
- -$3.87K
No position
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.3%
- Current value
- $6.11K
- Potential payout
- $7K
- Potential profit
- $892.5
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $681.72
No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.6%
- Current value
- $1.79K
- Potential payout
- $7K
- Potential profit
- $5.21K
- Multiplier
- 3.91x
- User PnL
- -$4.28K
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $5.43K
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $570
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $450
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $3.88K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $1.13K
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $25
No position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $4.3K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $700
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $450
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $4.75K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $252.5
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $433.3
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.6%
- Current value
- $4.68K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $320
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $215.53
No position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $2.87K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $2.12K
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $275
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $4.52K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $474.81
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $274.89
No position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $3.81K
- Potential payout
- $4.64K
- Potential profit
- $835.9
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $718.49
No position
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $3.36K
- Potential payout
- $3.58K
- Potential profit
- $214.58
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $250.35
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Current value
- $2.82K
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $175.5
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $85.5
No position
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.4%
- Current value
- $1.87K
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $1.13K
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$677.97
No position
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $2.6K
- Potential payout
- $2.63K
- Potential profit
- $24.98
- User PnL
- $763.78
No position
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $2K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1
- User PnL
- $239
Yes position
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $221.86
- Potential payout
- $1.27K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $49.43
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $165
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $835
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $15
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.3%
- Current value
- $932.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $67.5
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $20.5
Yes position
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $865
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $135
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $65
No position
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $775
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $225
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- -$15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.76K
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.5K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.61K
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.28K
No position
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.26K
Yes position
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $942.47
No position
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $793.56
Yes position
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $664.99
No position
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $591
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $447.34
No position
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $420
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $400
Nothing position
Nothing Ever Happens: March
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $285.59
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $210
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.19
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$371.99
No position
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6.57K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?No 65% 2,191.24 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 77% 299.76 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?No 34.8% 58 shares
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?No 67% 34.01 shares
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Yes 25% 641.68 shares
- Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?Yes 1% 1,000 shares
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Yes 36% 115.22 shares
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?No 77% 3,424.01 shares
- Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?Yes 42% 3,500 shares
- Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?Yes 41% 504 shares
- Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?Yes 39.7% 1,557.02 shares
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Yes 33% 444 shares