Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $1.61
- Potential payout
- $71.43
- Potential profit
- $69.82
- Multiplier
- 44.44x
- User PnL
- -$3.39
Polymarket Trader
asterope
0x7e7a8b6fca918f8be457e68336921877d6615323
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $116.98
- Realized PnL
- $82.63
- Win rate
- 75%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 12
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $55.56
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $30.72
- Potential payout
- $54.38
- Potential profit
- $23.66
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$4.28
Yes position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $40.2
- Potential payout
- $49.02
- Potential profit
- $8.82
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.28
- Potential profit
- $21.28
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $16.42
- Potential payout
- $18.99
- Potential profit
- $2.56
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.42
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.15
- Potential profit
- $15.15
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $12.5
- Potential payout
- $14.29
- Potential profit
- $1.79
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $2.5
No position
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68%
- Current value
- $4.53
- Potential payout
- $6.67
- Potential profit
- $2.13
- Multiplier
- 1.47x
- User PnL
- -$0.47
No position
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.49
- Potential profit
- $6.49
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $5.54
- Potential payout
- $6.41
- Potential profit
- $0.87
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.54
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $5.45
- Potential payout
- $6.02
- Potential profit
- $0.57
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.45
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $43.97
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.28
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.08
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.52
No position
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $4.34
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.96
Yes position
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.9
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $0.83
Yes position
Will Apple announce a standalone Siri app during the WWDC 2026 keynote?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.14
No position
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
ChatGPT Outage by May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6.2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?No 86% 10.86 shares
- Will Apple announce a standalone Siri app during the WWDC 2026 keynote?Yes 98% 4.08 shares
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?No 79% 18.99 shares
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes 56% 8.93 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Yes 7.3% 136.99 shares
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes 66% 22.73 shares
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?Yes 84% 10 shares
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?Yes 81.6% 49.02 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No 78% 6.41 shares
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes 66% 22.73 shares
- Will Trump visit China by May 15?Yes 86% 9.25 shares
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026No 42% 73.41 shares