Polymarket Trader

Tender-Series

@TheFarrow

0x7ee3651acc35c6fb7d15cf8aa1553458c8e7cbb1

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $158.22
Realized PnL: -$79.14
Win rate: 0%
Open positions: 11
Closed positions: 6
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.75M
Potential profit: $1.75M
User PnL: -$4.4K

Yes position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $293.73K
Potential profit: $293.73K
User PnL: -$2.4K

Yes position

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $221.9K
Potential profit: $221.9K
User PnL: -$2.93K

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $205K
Potential profit: $205K
User PnL: -$410

Yes position

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.84K
Potential profit: $57.84K
User PnL: -$137.71

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50K
Potential profit: $50K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $142.97
Potential payout: $11.44K
Potential profit: $11.29K
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$83.53

Yes position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $4.2
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $295.8
Multiplier: 71.43x
User PnL: -$0.9

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $65
Potential profit: $65
User PnL: -$5.2

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $39.62
Potential profit: $39.58
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 38.1%
Current value: $11
Potential payout: $28.88
Potential profit: $17.88
Multiplier: 2.62x
User PnL: $10.43

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will SpaceX raise at least $120B in its IPO?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.71

Yes position

Will SpaceX raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.77

Yes position

Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$12.61

Yes position

Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$14.14

Yes position

Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$18.55

Yes position

Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$29.34

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Yes 2% 28.88 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 1.6% 2,208.34 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 2.2% 50 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 2.2% 455.62 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 2.3% 3,704.9 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 1.9% 5,018.97 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 0.3% 16,218.8 shares
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?

Yes 0.9% 100 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 0.2% 3.99 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 0.3% 340 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 0.2% 27,874.65 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 0.2% 5,995.3 shares