Badbreaker

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.47K
Potential profit: $7.47K
User PnL: -$122.51

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.58K
Potential profit: $3.58K
User PnL: -$23

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.66K
Potential profit: $1.66K
User PnL: -$109.2

Yes position

Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $62.62
Potential payout: $1.38K
Potential profit: $1.31K
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: -$219.97

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $13.85
Potential payout: $350.69
Potential profit: $336.84
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: -$32.67

Yes position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $331.83
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$18.5

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $240
Potential profit: $240
User PnL: -$108.72

Yes position

Netanyahu out by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $229.41
Potential profit: $229.41
User PnL: -$4.6

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $212.76
Potential profit: $212.76
User PnL: -$21.96

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $27.7
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $172.3
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: -$4.3

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$24

Yes position

Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.6
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $199.4
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$19.4

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $194.99
Potential profit: $194.99
User PnL: -$48.75

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $16.15
Potential payout: $190
Potential profit: $173.85
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$8.45

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $170
Potential profit: $170
User PnL: -$87.9

Yes position

Kash Patel out by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $167.86
Potential profit: $167.86
User PnL: -$24.75

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $143.36
Potential profit: $143.36
User PnL: -$4.87

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $110.61
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$9.5

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $107.25
Potential profit: $107.25
User PnL: -$62

Yes position

Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$11.1

No position

Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $73.62
Potential profit: $73.62
User PnL: -$47.5

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.99
Potential profit: $71.99
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Kash Patel out by June 30?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $0.49
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.51
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$7.31

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$4.7

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.16

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.67

Yes position

Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.94

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $36.64

Yes position

Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $25.58

Yes position

Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.03

Yes position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $14.29

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 97.6%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $10

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.96

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.93

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Multiplier: 41.67x
User PnL: $7.54

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20?

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.13

Yes position

Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.93

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.54

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $2.46

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $2.45

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.96

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.55

No position

Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.95

No position

Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.51

No position

Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.4

No position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?