Polymarket Trader

LuckyOctopus

0x7f4801e36f4d0681c06d0a663ed8812e1df0ec6e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $165.45
Realized PnL: $255.58
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $136.59
Potential profit: $136.59
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $133.33
Potential profit: $133.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $115.8
Potential profit: $115.8
User PnL: -$1

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $42.19
Potential payout: $49.93
Potential profit: $7.74
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $12.19

Yes position

Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $38.46
User PnL: -$30

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $34.43
Potential payout: $34.48
Potential profit: $0.05
User PnL: $14.43

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.78
Potential profit: $30.78
User PnL: -$10

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $29.94
Potential payout: $30.04
Potential profit: $0.11
User PnL: $9.94

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82.8%
Current value: $23.71
Potential payout: $28.65
Potential profit: $4.94
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $3.71

Yes position

Spain vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.26
Potential profit: $23.26
User PnL: -$10

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $5.31
Potential payout: $20.83
Potential profit: $15.52
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $0.31

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $12.55
Potential payout: $20.41
Potential profit: $7.86
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $2.55

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.23
Potential profit: $19.23
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.87
Potential profit: $18.87
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.87
Potential profit: $18.87
User PnL: -$10

Netherlands position

Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.87
Potential profit: $18.87
User PnL: -$10

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.69
Potential profit: $18.69
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $17.31
Potential payout: $18.52
Potential profit: $1.2
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $7.31

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.52
Potential profit: $18.52
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.21
Potential profit: $18.21
User PnL: -$10

Argentina position

Spread: Argentina (-2.5)

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.18
Potential profit: $18.18
User PnL: -$8

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.43

No position

Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.25

Yes position

Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.39

No position

Will another country strike Iran by March 7?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.39

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.79

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.75

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.77

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.23

No position

Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.16

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.78

Morocco position

Spread: Morocco (-1.5)

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.24

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.95

France position

Spread: France (-2.5)

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.95

Senegal position

Spread: Senegal (-1.5)

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.95

Yes position

Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.63

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-06-19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.39

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.39

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.13

Yes position

Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.13

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.13

Yes position

Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.87

Over position

Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.64

Yes position

Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.63

Mexico position

Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.63

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Yes 56% 3.57 shares
Spain vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score

Yes 43% 23.26 shares
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 65% 5.18 shares
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?

Yes 64% 15.63 shares
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5

Over 79% 12.27 shares
England vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5

Under 74% 13.51 shares
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?

No 76% 7.24 shares
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance

Mexico 64% 15.63 shares
France vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5

Over 69% 4.2 shares
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 64% 15.63 shares
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 60% 16.67 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?

Yes 73% 13.7 shares