Polymarket Trader

Jabotinsky

0x7f96229bd42dbe4d2f6db06da771ee6ec16da226

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.02K
Realized PnL: $1K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.33
Potential payout: $652.73
Potential profit: $652.4
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.28

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.1%
Current value: $295.26
Potential payout: $307.4
Potential profit: $12.14
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $132.76

Yes position

Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $1.52
Potential payout: $304.6
Potential profit: $303.08
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$5.73

Yes position

Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.66
Potential payout: $265.22
Potential profit: $264.56
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$6.8

Yes position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $106.9
Potential payout: $171.03
Potential profit: $64.14
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $27.3

No position

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $153.91
Potential payout: $162.01
Potential profit: $8.1
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $41.84

No position

Will the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 23, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $94.97
Potential payout: $144.99
Potential profit: $50.02
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: -$2.36

Yes position

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $109.84
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.82

No position

Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $11.1
Potential payout: $105.69
Potential profit: $94.59
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$6.87

Yes position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.9%
Current value: $102.8
Potential payout: $105
Potential profit: $2.2
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $4.1

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $5.7
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $94.3
Multiplier: 17.54x
User PnL: $1.7

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $5.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $94.25
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $82.53
Potential payout: $91.7
Potential profit: $9.17
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $26.1

No position

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $3.85
Potential payout: $90.66
Potential profit: $86.8
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: -$7.95

No position

Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $38.88
Potential payout: $62.21
Potential profit: $23.33
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $5.49

Yes position

Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 23, 2026

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $27.21
Potential payout: $51.34
Potential profit: $24.13
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: $2.46

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $5.08
Potential payout: $48.42
Potential profit: $43.33
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$20.72

Yes position

Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $19.55
Potential payout: $46
Potential profit: $26.45
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$5.39

Yes position

Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $26.63
Potential payout: $36.48
Potential profit: $9.85
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $14.3
Potential payout: $25.77
Potential profit: $11.47
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: -$3.94

No position

Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $20.16
Potential payout: $21.33
Potential profit: $1.17
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $4.66

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$5.89

Yes position

Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $4.25
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $5.75
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $1.53
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $3.48
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: $0.27

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the February decision?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.41

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?

Ends Nov 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.15

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.9

No position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.11

Yes position

Will two people dissent the January Fed decision?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.06

Yes position

Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.46

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?

Ends Nov 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.34

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.33

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.2

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?

Ends Nov 5, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $40.7

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.55

Yes position

Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?

Ends Mar 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.74

Yes position

Will the government shutdown end November 13?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.77

Yes position

Will the government shutdown end November 12?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $35.57

No position

Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.46

Yes position

Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.35

Yes position

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.65

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.41

Yes position

Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the May meeting?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.06

Yes position

Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.84

No position

Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.52

No position

Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $27.34

Yes position

Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.04

No position

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.6

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ?

Yes 42% 5 shares
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ?

Yes 44% 21 shares
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

No 58% 15.44 shares
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

No 9% 29.99 shares
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

No 70.8% 30 shares
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

No 69.9% 17.44 shares
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

Yes 74% 6.48 shares
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

Yes 73% 17.36 shares
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

No 60% 7.23 shares
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

No 53% 20 shares
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

No 52% 20 shares
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Yes 94% 55 shares