Polymarket Trader

Lisbon

0x8055ae09bfeeac2f46dffe254cc1868f2df444c4

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $66.19K
Realized PnL: $8.69K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 22
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $26.91K
Potential payout: $32.06K
Potential profit: $5.15K
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $10.88K

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 16.1%
Current value: $5.15K
Potential payout: $32.06K
Potential profit: $26.91K
Multiplier: 6.23x
User PnL: -$10.88K

No position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $6.84K
Potential payout: $7K
Potential profit: $164.5
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: -$87.5

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 18.3%
Current value: $1.27K
Potential payout: $6.97K
Potential profit: $5.7K
Multiplier: 5.48x
User PnL: -$414.72

No position

Trump out as President by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $4.98K
Potential payout: $4.99K
Potential profit: $17.47
User PnL: $232.15

No position

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $4.24K
Potential payout: $4.28K
Potential profit: $40.64
User PnL: -$10.27

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 37.2%
Current value: $1.47K
Potential payout: $3.95K
Potential profit: $2.49K
Multiplier: 2.69x
User PnL: -$224.86

No position

Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $3.8K
Potential payout: $3.81K
Potential profit: $11.43
User PnL: $0

No position

James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $3.12K
Potential payout: $3.27K
Potential profit: $147.15
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $104.45

No position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $1.31K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $1.7K
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$195

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $2.98K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $22.5
User PnL: $52.5

No position

Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $1.16K
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $18.29
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $48.41

No position

Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $955
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $45
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$24

No position

Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $945
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $55
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $75

No position

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $341.35
Potential payout: $353
Potential profit: $11.65
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $9.18

No position

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $298.8
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $1.2
User PnL: $9

No position

Joe Burrow traded to the Jets?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $228.56
Potential payout: $239.33
Potential profit: $10.77
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$3.16

No position

New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $197.31
Potential payout: $198
Potential profit: $0.69
User PnL: -$0.3

No position

Will Venezuela become 51st state?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $9.66
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0.35
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$0.08

No position

Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $5
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.43
Potential profit: $1.43
User PnL: -$0.18

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.3%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $0.07
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.19

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $1.24K

No position

Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $627.21

No position

Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $579

No position

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $505.74

No position

Xi Jinping out before October?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $475.65

No position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 95%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $471

No position

Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $413.08

Yes position

Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?

Ends Jun 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $378.29

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $357.51

No position

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $357.01

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $320.64

Yes position

2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $316.29

Yes position

2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $307.83

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
User PnL: $291.62

No position

Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $247.97

No position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 81.8%
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $229.77

Yes position

2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $217.81

No position

Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $216.99

No position

Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $207.17

Yes position

Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?

Ends Feb 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $196.49

No position

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $194.44

No position

Will Andrew Cuomo drop out?

Ends Nov 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $183.55

Yes position

2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $179.95

No position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $174.62

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?

No 99.7% 3,809 shares
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30?

No 99.8% 198 shares
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open?

No 97.9% 1,000 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

No 99.9% 14,033.86 shares
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

No 99.4% 1,000 shares
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?

Yes 98.5% 1,000 shares
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Yes 97.7% 277.53 shares
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 98.9% 7,000 shares
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?

No 99.7% 1,472.95 shares
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

No 99.9% 5.88 shares
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

No 99.9% 6,341.27 shares
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

No 93% 4,288.5 shares