Polymarket Trader

0x806e...164f

0x806eb39a397cd3a17dae90ab123dea5099fe164f

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $12.73
Realized PnL: $6.19
Win rate: 20.8%
Open positions: 8
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $246.67
Potential profit: $246.67
User PnL: -$1.48

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.5
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $1.74
Potential payout: $56.18
Potential profit: $54.44
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.08
Potential profit: $48.08
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $33.16
Potential profit: $32.91
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$1.09

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $9.83
Potential payout: $10.25
Potential profit: $0.42
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $8.52
Potential profit: $8.17
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $0.39
Potential payout: $6.84
Potential profit: $6.45
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$0.04

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.83

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 15.8%
Multiplier: 6.35x
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 84.3%
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 85.5%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 14.5%
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Ends Jun 30, 2027

Implied probability: 87.5%
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.9%
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $0

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $0

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

No 79% 3.08 shares
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Yes 4.1% 141.95 shares
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

No 95.9% 4.14 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 97% 4.79 shares
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Yes 4% 82.88 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

No 87% 1.26 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Yes 87% 1.31 shares
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

Yes 22% 7.27 shares
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?

Yes 5% 46.8 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Yes 46% 5.93 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 3% 251.67 shares
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

No 95.9% 3.88 shares