Yes position
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $2.11K
- Potential payout
- $11.38K
- Potential profit
- $9.27K
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$3.41K
Polymarket Trader
0x80cf...614d
0x80cf0749b26556cb2ce5bad513388309865d614d
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $15.54K
- Realized PnL
- $28.56K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $8.8K
- Potential payout
- $10.81K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $3.4K
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.91K
- Potential profit
- $8.91K
- User PnL
- -$713.16
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$150
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $580.5
- Potential payout
- $2.7K
- Potential profit
- $2.12K
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- -$414.48
Yes position
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $1.67K
- User PnL
- -$201.77
No position
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $1.59K
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $12
- User PnL
- $268.98
Yes position
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.41K
- Potential profit
- $1.41K
- User PnL
- -$142.54
Yes position
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $149.5
- Potential payout
- $1.3K
- Potential profit
- $1.15K
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$188.49
Yes position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- User PnL
- -$322.59
Yes position
Iranian coup attempt before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- User PnL
- -$37.79
Yes position
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $195.98
- Potential payout
- $890.83
- Potential profit
- $694.85
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- -$3.84
Yes position
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $12.4
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $787.6
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$59.6
Yes position
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $798.44
- Potential profit
- $798.44
- User PnL
- -$123.1
Yes position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $108
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $492
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$108
No position
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $596.69
- Potential payout
- $599.99
- Potential profit
- $3.3
- User PnL
- $18
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $548.88
- Potential payout
- $599.87
- Potential profit
- $50.99
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $110.98
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $499.67
- Potential payout
- $512.74
- Potential profit
- $13.07
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $22.82
No position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $57.5
- Potential payout
- $500.01
- Potential profit
- $442.51
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$107
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$64.5
Yes position
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $310
- Potential profit
- $310
- User PnL
- -$42.3
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $189
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $11
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $9
Yes position
Will RFK Jr. find the cause of Autism before November?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $177.2
- Potential profit
- $177.2
- User PnL
- -$47.67
No position
Tucker Carlson announces a run for office by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $105.03
- Potential payout
- $113.55
- Potential profit
- $8.52
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.27
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.07K
No position
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.3K
No position
Will there be a US Government shutdown?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.22K
Yes position
Will there be a US Government shutdown?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.05K
No position
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8K
Yes position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.56K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.32K
No position
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3K
Yes position
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?
Ends Jan 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.15K
Yes position
Trump declassifies JFK files in first week?
Ends Jan 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
Yes position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $1.03K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $938.01
Yes position
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $917
Yes position
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- $755.48
No position
Trump issues 100+ Executive Orders orders on Day 1?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $679.99
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $635.7
No position
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $586.19
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $560
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $488
No position
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?
Ends Jan 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $474.9
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $463.54
Yes position
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $409.57
No position
Israel military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $376.25
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $375.91
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No 90% 46.01 shares
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes 21% 175 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 83% 223.51 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No 93% 512.74 shares
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes 20.7% 770 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 0.1% 11.75 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 73% 153.24 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 10% 1,400 shares
- Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No 97.3% 12.22 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 48.1% 1,112.92 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 22% 557.01 shares
- Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes 0.1% 406.98 shares