Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.02K
- Potential profit
- $2.02K
- User PnL
- -$86.51
Polymarket Trader
TimeDecay
0x811fe35b4ccfb689a8bf2e144498f358ae7516e3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $17.97
- Realized PnL
- $7.7K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $829.73
- Potential profit
- $829.73
- User PnL
- -$138.29
Yes position
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $570.45
- Potential profit
- $570.45
- User PnL
- -$106.58
Yes position
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $369
- Potential profit
- $369
- User PnL
- -$114.39
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $298
- Potential profit
- $298
- User PnL
- -$212.95
No position
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $245.98
- Potential profit
- $245.98
- User PnL
- -$99.62
No position
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $148.01
- Potential profit
- $148.01
- User PnL
- -$135.74
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $17.97
- Potential payout
- $18
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $16.89
Yes position
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.84K
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.66K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $681.45
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $514.11
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $414.89
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $221.2
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $205.2
No position
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $141.63
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $125.56
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $116.16
No position
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.19
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.54
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.8
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.21
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.82
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.96
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.35
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.82
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.91
No position
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.86
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.8
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.79
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.97
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.73
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?No 22.1% 5 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 6% 18 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes 70% 1,382.95 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes 62% 4,367.09 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 41.1% 2,744.85 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Yes 40% 449 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?No 95.9% 119.8 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No 85% 93.63 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?No 95.1% 99 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 59.6% 183 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?No 95% 30 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?No 94.9% 94.8 shares