0x81300A0a80718398f9Ab90db00D4b85A76245a50-1780230851747

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $59.13
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.54K
Multiplier: 27.03x
User PnL: $19.53

Yes position

Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.49
Potential payout: $970
Potential profit: $969.52
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.46

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $23.11
Potential payout: $962.84
Potential profit: $939.73
Multiplier: 41.67x
User PnL: -$4.73

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?

Implied probability: 10.2%
Current value: $57.95
Potential payout: $568.74
Potential profit: $510.79
Multiplier: 9.81x
User PnL: $29.47

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $14.92
Potential payout: $505.83
Potential profit: $490.91
Multiplier: 33.90x
User PnL: $8.85

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $12.06
Potential payout: $474.72
Potential profit: $462.66
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$3.86

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $13.07
Potential payout: $357.96
Potential profit: $344.9
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$7.34

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $6.5
Potential payout: $342
Potential profit: $335.5
Multiplier: 52.63x
User PnL: -$13.34

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 14.4%
Current value: $38.86
Potential payout: $270.8
Potential profit: $231.94
Multiplier: 6.97x
User PnL: $4.58

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $39.68
Potential payout: $165.33
Potential profit: $125.65
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: -$4.39

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $24.26
Potential payout: $138.64
Potential profit: $114.38
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $1.42

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $2.52
Potential payout: $122.75
Potential profit: $120.24
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$3.94

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $40.4
Potential payout: $112.21
Potential profit: $71.81
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: $2.84

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $18.89
Potential payout: $105.26
Potential profit: $86.37
Multiplier: 5.57x
User PnL: -$1.77

No position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $24.17
Potential payout: $92.96
Potential profit: $68.79
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $67.46
Potential profit: $67.42
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$21.99

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $4.68
Potential payout: $62.42
Potential profit: $57.73
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$5.31

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $1.95
Potential payout: $61.76
Potential profit: $59.82
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$2.25

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $11.17
Potential payout: $60.56
Potential profit: $49.39
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $1.42

Yes position

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $1.23
Potential payout: $57.32
Potential profit: $56.09
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$1.12

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $1.47
Potential payout: $49.07
Potential profit: $47.6
Multiplier: 33.33x
User PnL: -$2.94

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $29.4
Potential payout: $44.21
Potential profit: $14.81
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: $10.39

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $2.26
Potential payout: $41.11
Potential profit: $38.85
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$2.95

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $23.95
Potential payout: $37.13
Potential profit: $13.18
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: -$0.62

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $181.24

Over position

Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.89

Over position

Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.92

San Diego Padres position

Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.89

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.85

Over position

New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.5

Knicks position

Knicks vs. Spurs

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.64

Bilibili Gaming position

LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.29

Team WE position

LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.59

Arizona Diamondbacks position

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.26

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.86

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.5

San Diego Padres position

Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.5

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $24.4

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.25

Karmine Corp Blue position

LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.56

Team WE position

LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.47

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $21.01

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.96

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET