No position
Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.32K
- Potential profit
- $3.32K
- User PnL
- -$30.14
Polymarket Trader
doubledual4
0x815fabccbf3697d06200b40587c60ec459d58a76
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $292.9
- Realized PnL
- $564.16
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Robin Kelly be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.33K
- Potential profit
- $1.33K
- User PnL
- -$2.94
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $210
- Potential profit
- $210
- User PnL
- -$29.39
No position
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $99.95
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- User PnL
- $18.95
Yes position
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $99.95
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- User PnL
- $23.95
N
No position
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $93
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $7
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.95
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?
Ends Nov 7, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72
Yes position
Will a Democrat win Missouri Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $46.59
Yes position
Will a candidate from another party win Missouri Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $46.59
No position
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.06
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.53
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 1PM ET
Ends Jul 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.9
Yes position
Will Madani first lead in the 2nd round?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.49
Yes position
Will Madani first lead in the 3rd round?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.49
Over position
Tim Walz DNC Speech: O/U 30 minutes?
Ends Aug 21, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.95
Yes position
Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?
Ends Aug 22, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.1
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 2PM ET
Ends Jul 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.35
Yes position
Trump posts between 20 and 24 times on X?
Ends Aug 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.85
Yes position
Trump posts 35-39 or more times on X?
Ends Aug 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.85
Yes position
Trump posts 30-34 or more times on X?
Ends Aug 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.85
Yes position
Trump posts between 25 and 29 times on X?
Ends Aug 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.85
Yes position
Trump posts between 5 and 9 times on X?
Ends Aug 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.85
Yes position
Trump posts between 15 and 19 times on X?
Ends Aug 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.85
Yes position
Trump posts 40 or more times on X?
Ends Aug 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.85
Yes position
Will Obama say "Obamacare" or "Affordable Care Act" at DNC speech?
Ends Aug 20, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.8
Yes position
Trump posts less than 5 times on X?
Ends Aug 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.4
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.15
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.41
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?No 94% 100 shares
- Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?No 81% 100 shares
- Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?Yes 76% 100 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes 96.6% 160 shares
- Will "China" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes 99% 62.85 shares
- Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?No 77% 168 shares
- Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?No 34% 90 shares
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Yes 60% 100 shares
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?Yes 85% 120 shares
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yes 70% 100 shares
- Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?No 98.5% 200 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?Yes 14% 60 shares