prognozu

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $2.95K
Potential payout: $3.22K
Potential profit: $273.71
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $154.07

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $1.66K
Potential payout: $1.67K
Potential profit: $9.18
User PnL: $118.86

No position

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $457.85
Potential payout: $462.71
Potential profit: $4.86
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $8.59

Down position

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $17.02
Potential payout: $420.16
Potential profit: $403.15
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$152.44

Yes position

Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.2%
Current value: $398.74
Potential payout: $414.71
Potential profit: $15.97
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $1.04

Yes position

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $266.72
Potential profit: $266.72
User PnL: -$31.35

Yes position

US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $106.58
Potential payout: $203
Potential profit: $96.43
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$14.21

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $198.31
Potential payout: $200.01
Potential profit: $1.7
User PnL: $6.9

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $181
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $19
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$0.49

No position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $186.92
Potential payout: $199.92
Potential profit: $12.99
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $9

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $171.46
Potential payout: $183.37
Potential profit: $11.92
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $8.25

No position

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $154.47
Potential payout: $154.71
Potential profit: $0.23
User PnL: $3.98

No position

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.2%
Current value: $131.7
Potential payout: $138.41
Potential profit: $6.71
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2.16

Yes position

Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $15.5
Potential payout: $100.01
Potential profit: $84.51
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $30.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $69.5
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.55
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$4.55

Yes position

Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.68
Potential payout: $61.84
Potential profit: $61.16
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: -$2.22

Yes position

Anduril IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $4.82
Potential payout: $53.52
Potential profit: $48.7
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$3.78

Yes position

Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $4.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $45.25
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $0.1

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $49.37
Potential payout: $49.55
Potential profit: $0.17
User PnL: $0.47

No position

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?

Implied probability: 89.8%
Current value: $43.25
Potential payout: $48.16
Potential profit: $4.91
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $1.01

Yes position

Will 2 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $6.13
Potential payout: $45.43
Potential profit: $39.29
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $3.41

Yes position

Stripe IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $3.13
Potential payout: $44.73
Potential profit: $41.6
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$12.08

Yes position

Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $1.56
Potential payout: $44.63
Potential profit: $43.07
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: -$2.99

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.9%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $340.82

Yes position

Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $285.56

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $187.53

Yes position

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 75.5%
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $129.36

No position

Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.45

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90

Yes position

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.44

No position

Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.05

Yes position

US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.73

Yes position

Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.24

Yes position

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.86

Yes position

Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?

Ends Jan 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.41

No position

Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.63

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $54.28

Yes position

Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.25

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.56

No position

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.48

No position

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.57

No position

Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.37

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.77

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?