Polymarket Trader

HoldenBloodfeast

0x8204c2803f9b69e6a623ac70c92a049699ed56ea

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $7.85K
Realized PnL: $53.94K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $337.5
Potential payout: $25K
Potential profit: $24.66K
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$22.5

Yes position

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $212.5
Potential payout: $25K
Potential profit: $24.79K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$112.5

Yes position

Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.2%
Current value: $774.87
Potential payout: $12.5K
Potential profit: $11.72K
Multiplier: 16.13x
User PnL: -$1.46K

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $2.19K
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $3.81K
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: $30

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$2.6K

No position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $2K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $120

No position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 21.6%
Current value: $432
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.57K
Multiplier: 4.63x
User PnL: -$1.37K

No position

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1K
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $340

No position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $805
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $195
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.4
Potential profit: $999.4
User PnL: -$254.85

No position

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $91.72
Potential payout: $273.8
Potential profit: $182.07
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $4.11

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $2.26
Potential payout: $237.38
Potential profit: $235.13
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$125.93

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $2.29
Potential payout: $2.3
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.34

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Maduro out by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.1K

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?

Ends Jan 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.65K

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.1K

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2K

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.89K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.83K

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.49K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.45K

Yes position

US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.38K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.34K

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $1.32K

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.05K

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $880.03

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $768.09

No position

US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $669.66

No position

US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $559.54

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $431.81

No position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?

Ends Apr 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $417.06

No position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $341.46

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $307.1

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $304.58

No position

US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?

Ends Jan 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.54

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $220

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $206.36

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Yes 65.8% 1,500 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?

No 98.9% 3,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Yes 33.8% 7,000 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Yes 78.3% 4,000 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

No 74.5% 5,000 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

No 96.6% 14,000 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Yes 52% 4,000 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?

No 94% 2,000 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?

No 85% 3,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Yes 37% 1,500 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Yes 13% 7,000 shares
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

No 32% 39.94 shares