Polymarket Trader

ArienNasr

0x82c94c218d9c102fbe58b92f7c7c920a6b4736fc

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.65K
Realized PnL: $11.69K
Win rate: 83.3%
Open positions: 11
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $14.04
Potential payout: $9.36K
Potential profit: $9.35K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$4.13K

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $4
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $996.01
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$107

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $999.99
User PnL: -$239

No position

Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $785.85
Potential payout: $930
Potential profit: $144.15
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $13.95

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $53.2
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $746.8
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$0.4

No position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $732.32
Potential payout: $758.88
Potential profit: $26.56
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $12.14

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.4%
Current value: $62.1
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $537.9
Multiplier: 9.66x
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $539
Potential profit: $539
User PnL: -$140.14

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $303
Potential profit: $303
User PnL: -$4.55

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$8.4

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.92K

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.1K

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 63%
Multiplier: 1.59x
User PnL: $1.78K

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $1.02K

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $305.18

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $270.48

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $240.21

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $196

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $176

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $118.56

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $105.02

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $103.91

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $57.96

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Multiplier: 16.81x
User PnL: $49.18

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 96.2%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $43.63

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.24

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $6.56

No position

Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.71

No position

Iran closes its airspace by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.59

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.29

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 10.4% 600 shares
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 6.7% 800 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

No 58% 93.73 shares
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

No 83% 929.54 shares
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

No 94.9% 758.88 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.8% 2,010 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?

Yes 87% 671.31 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 23% 3,000 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?

No 4.2% 1,380 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 51.8% 2,400 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

Yes 84% 295 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

Yes 83% 20 shares