Yes position
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 60%
- Current value
- $80.67
- Potential payout
- $134.44
- Potential profit
- $53.78
- Multiplier
- 1.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.34
Polymarket Trader
P8w
0x8312cf55294533b70799645c9294aea26c79ce49
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $170.65
- Realized PnL
- -$18.45
- Win rate
- 66.7%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 3
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Phil Murphy announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $89.98
- Potential payout
- $92.15
- Potential profit
- $2.17
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $49.37
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $49.3
- Potential profit
- $49.3
- User PnL
- -$9.86
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.1
No position
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.28
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$22.83
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes 61% 134.44 shares
- Will Phil Murphy announce a Presidential run before 2027?No 91% 92.13 shares
- Will Phil Murphy announce a Presidential run before 2027?No 44.1% 184.28 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?No 16.4% 495.51 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?No 20.9% 124.86 shares
- Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Yes 74.2% 140.21 shares
- Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Yes 72% 125.09 shares
- Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?No 88.1% 114.59 shares
- Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?No 87% 114.59 shares
- Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?Yes 20% 49.3 shares