Polymarket Trader

Penitent-6

0x83575b2a7928067a90abe13f708af92206bb2946

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $202.34
Realized PnL: $2.37K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 12
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $350.88
Potential profit: $350.88
User PnL: -$200

No position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $145.11
Potential payout: $326.09
Potential profit: $180.98
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$4.89

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $10.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $189.5
Multiplier: 19.05x
User PnL: -$9.5

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $4.61
Potential payout: $86.21
Potential profit: $81.59
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$0.39

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $27.13
Potential payout: $63.83
Potential profit: $36.7
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$2.87

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.52
Potential profit: $59.52
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $2.69
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $52.86
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: -$2.31

Yes position

Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $1.06
Potential payout: $37.04
Potential profit: $35.98
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 38.4%
Current value: $9.81
Potential payout: $25.58
Potential profit: $15.77
Multiplier: 2.61x
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $0.74
Potential payout: $20.41
Potential profit: $19.66
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$0.26

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?

Ends Jun 30, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.23
Potential profit: $19.23
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.69
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $11.81
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.31

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $519.92

Yes position

Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?

Ends Feb 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $452.04

Eagles position

Super Bowl LIX Winner

Ends Feb 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $257.9

No position

Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $249.41

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $144.41

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $128.57

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.14

No position

Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the playoffs?

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.34

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $63.92

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $59.49

No position

Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.19

No position

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

Ends Jan 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.36

Commanders position

Commanders vs. Lions

Ends Jan 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.25

PSG position

Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.87

Yes position

Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.16

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.41

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.31

Yes position

US recession in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.65

No position

Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.13

Commanders position

Commanders vs. Buccaneers

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.83

Yes position

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?

Ends Sep 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.2

No position

Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.84

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.41

Yes position

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.36

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

No 46% 108.7 shares
Fed rate hike in 2026?

No 46% 217.39 shares
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

No 60.1% 348.83 shares
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

No 43% 348.84 shares
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Yes 57% 20.54 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

No 87% 172.41 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?

No 52% 19.23 shares
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Yes 73% 20.55 shares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes 39.1% 25.58 shares
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Yes 42% 59.52 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

No 57% 5 shares
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes 47% 63.83 shares