IlIlllIIIIllllIlIlllllIlIIIllllI

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $4.04K
Potential payout: $4.51K
Potential profit: $473.59
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $724.62

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $1.91K
Potential payout: $2.53K
Potential profit: $619.35
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $402.03

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $1.96K
Potential payout: $2.17K
Potential profit: $205.96
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $646.03

No position

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $1.48K
Potential payout: $1.48K
Potential profit: $2.22
User PnL: $129.02

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.07K
Potential profit: $1.07K
User PnL: -$615.17

Yes position

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

Implied probability: 35%
Current value: $372.2
Potential payout: $1.06K
Potential profit: $691.23
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: $36.98

Yes position

Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $30.53
Potential payout: $793
Potential profit: $762.47
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$81.35

Yes position

Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $97.72
Potential payout: $630.43
Potential profit: $532.71
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$276.19

No position

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $61.32
Potential payout: $438
Potential profit: $376.68
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$56.94

No position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $317.34
Potential payout: $328
Potential profit: $10.66
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $18.86

No position

Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $289
Potential payout: $289
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $138.72

Yes position

Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.84
Potential payout: $280.26
Potential profit: $279.42
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$34.64

No position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $259.76
Potential profit: $259.76
User PnL: -$59.95

No position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $228.16
Potential payout: $229.19
Potential profit: $1.03
User PnL: $48.2

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $177
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $23
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $29

Yes position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $8.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $191.1
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: -$49.1

Yes position

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Implied probability: 39%
Current value: $70.86
Potential payout: $181.68
Potential profit: $110.82
Multiplier: 2.56x
User PnL: -$35.53

Yes position

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $138.47
Potential payout: $181
Potential profit: $42.54
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $6.33

Yes position

Don Lemon charges dropped?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $146.95
Potential profit: $146.95
User PnL: -$77.88

Yes position

Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $116.26
Potential payout: $128.46
Potential profit: $12.2
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $55.69

Yes position

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $1.81
Potential payout: $124.61
Potential profit: $122.8
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$33.08

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.28
Potential payout: $111
Potential profit: $110.72
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$24.15

Yes position

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $108.88
Potential profit: $108.72
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$22.7

Yes position

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Ends Nov 30, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $42.88
Potential payout: $100.9
Potential profit: $58.02
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$8.58

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.62K

No position

Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.44K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.58K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.42K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.06K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.77K

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.3K

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.11K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.39K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.35K

Yes position

Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.1K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.07K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.9K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.85K

No position

Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.75K

Yes position

Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.53K

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.49K

Yes position

Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.47K

Yes position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $1.42K

Yes position

Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.4K

Yes position

Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.38K

No position

Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.35K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?