No position
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Current value
- $38.7
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $1.3
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.48
Polymarket Trader
smmar
0x838c80484f0d933813832e254423f05c1e29549e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $87.07
- Realized PnL
- $80.4
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $19.99
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.99
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $9.15
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.85
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $9.81
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.2
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $9.43
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.57
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14?
Ends Nov 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14
Yes position
Will Coinbase list $TRUMP in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Wednesday?
Ends Jan 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
No position
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by Sunday?
Ends Jan 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
No position
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?
Ends Nov 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $3.85
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.33
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.92
No position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.91
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.77
Yes position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.64
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.48
No position
TikTok sale announced by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.35
No position
Elon no longer world's richest before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.35
Yes position
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22
No position
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.19
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.01
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.86
No position
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.84
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.84
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.78
No position
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.75
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No 95% 10.53 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?No 98.9% 20.22 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Yes 74% 11.11 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?No 98.5% 18.18 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Yes 72% 11.11 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?No 97.5% 9.23 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?No 99% 18.18 shares
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No 95% 16.84 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes 97.5% 33.86 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?No 97.4% 15.4 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?No 89% 13.48 shares
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?No 94% 31.91 shares