No position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $115.46
- Potential payout
- $134.26
- Potential profit
- $18.8
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $16.11
Polymarket Trader
0x8461...c393
0x846128a60dfdc53633f57545f991f63fb138c393
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $226.86
- Realized PnL
- $33.39
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 16
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.1%
- Current value
- $11.99
- Potential payout
- $56.94
- Potential profit
- $44.95
- Multiplier
- 4.75x
- User PnL
- $0.26
No position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 74.1%
- Current value
- $36.9
- Potential payout
- $49.83
- Potential profit
- $12.93
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- -$1.92
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $2.19
- Potential payout
- $41.79
- Potential profit
- $39.6
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 80.9%
- Current value
- $25.39
- Potential payout
- $31.41
- Potential profit
- $6.02
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $1.27
No position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $10.89
- Potential payout
- $19.28
- Potential profit
- $8.39
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$0.68
No position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.2%
- Current value
- $16
- Potential payout
- $16.64
- Potential profit
- $0.64
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
No position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 59.9%
- Current value
- $8.03
- Potential payout
- $13.41
- Potential profit
- $5.38
- Multiplier
- 1.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.07
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $16.54
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.98
No position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.21
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 26%
- Multiplier
- 3.85x
- User PnL
- $1.49
No position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 86.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.44
No position
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.36
No position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.35
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.29
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 13.9%
- Multiplier
- 7.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.34
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.51
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$1.95
No position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.24
No position
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6.72
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 5.2% 92.81 shares
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No 75.1% 53.09 shares
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No 96.8% 51.79 shares
- Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No 97.9% 8.09 shares
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No 95.9% 25.63 shares
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No 20.6% 90.05 shares
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No 77.9% 117.33 shares
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 68.6% 39.03 shares
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No 76.8% 52.86 shares
- Will Trump visit China by June 30?No 3.6% 29.78 shares
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No 95.4% 16.02 shares
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes 20.7% 14.98 shares