No position
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $415.21
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $585.29
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- -$85.04
Polymarket Trader
Arasaka
@politicamorally
0x8476006567e6011a70263ca00165f3280e086461
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.1K
- Realized PnL
- $456.44
- Win rate
- 95.8%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $585.29
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $415.21
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $85.04
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $98.55
- Potential payout
- $146
- Potential profit
- $47.45
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $2.19
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $83.2
Yes position
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.8
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $32.22
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $22.14
Yes position
Will Ethereum reach $2,750 in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.8
No position
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.45
Yes position
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.18
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.7
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.4
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15.8
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
No position
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.97
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.92
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.52
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $4.85
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.64
SOL position
Will ETH or SOL reach all-time high first?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.64
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.49
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.35
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- $0.89
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 79.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes 66% 10 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes 66% 33 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes 66% 103 shares
- Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?Yes 17% 60 shares
- Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Yes 30% 204 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes 48% 369 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes 63% 395.75 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes 62% 110 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Yes 7% 442.02 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?Yes 56% 100 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?Yes 74% 220 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?Yes 88% 40 shares