No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $2.52K
- Potential payout
- $2.71K
- Potential profit
- $189.49
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $984.3
Polymarket Trader
nicolasGurr
0x848df648f91091f0f90d941990764c895d1235e6
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.64K
- Realized PnL
- $8.2K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 21
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $900.01
- Potential payout
- $994.49
- Potential profit
- $94.48
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $537.49
Yes position
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 67%
- Current value
- $607.64
- Potential payout
- $906.93
- Potential profit
- $299.29
- Multiplier
- 1.49x
- User PnL
- $122.26
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $678.58
- Potential payout
- $848.75
- Potential profit
- $170.18
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $118.84
Yes position
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21%
- Current value
- $119.79
- Potential payout
- $570.44
- Potential profit
- $450.65
- Multiplier
- 4.76x
- User PnL
- -$11.78
Yes position
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $518.29
- Potential profit
- $518.29
- User PnL
- -$85.04
No position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $461.75
- Potential payout
- $507.42
- Potential profit
- $45.67
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $15.23
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $327.19
- Potential payout
- $507.28
- Potential profit
- $180.08
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $121.78
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $400
- User PnL
- -$44
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72%
- Current value
- $239.04
- Potential payout
- $332
- Potential profit
- $92.96
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- $13.28
Yes position
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $107.8
- Potential payout
- $280
- Potential profit
- $172.2
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- $1.4
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $219.05
- Potential payout
- $236.81
- Potential profit
- $17.76
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $41.44
No position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$160
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Current value
- $131.25
- Potential payout
- $140
- Potential profit
- $8.75
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $5.25
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.3%
- Current value
- $47.16
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $72.84
- Multiplier
- 2.54x
- User PnL
- -$32.44
No position
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $72.59
- Potential payout
- $119.98
- Potential profit
- $47.39
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- -$1.8
Yes position
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 11%
- Current value
- $13.2
- Potential payout
- $119.98
- Potential profit
- $106.78
- Multiplier
- 9.09x
- User PnL
- -$1.2
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $99.62
- Potential payout
- $103.5
- Potential profit
- $3.88
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $15.41
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $52.81
- Potential payout
- $60.01
- Potential profit
- $7.2
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $20.4
No position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.4%
- Current value
- $42.95
- Potential payout
- $45.99
- Potential profit
- $3.04
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.64
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $6.03
- Potential payout
- $38.9
- Potential profit
- $32.87
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $0.97
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $920.42
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $750.87
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $701.42
No position
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $556.69
No position
Will Russia announce a Christmas truce?
Ends Jan 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $496.32
No position
Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $372.84
Yes position
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $362.51
Yes position
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $347.5
Yes position
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $346.58
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $299.21
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $293.86
Yes position
Will Russia enter Sviato-Pokrovske by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $277.08
Yes position
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $271.96
Yes position
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $270.18
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $225.97
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $219.41
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $213.52
No position
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $202.24
No position
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $200.01
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $194.61
Yes position
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $189.26
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $166.62
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $162.55
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $162.14
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 81% 902.34 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 40% 130 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes 88.9% 59.99 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No 68.2% 21.52 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 61% 100 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes 91% 83.2 shares
- Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?Yes 22% 29.56 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No 62.6% 160 shares
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No 76% 1.04 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?No 99.5% 235.29 shares
- Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?Yes 48.8% 199.08 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?Yes 5% 20 shares