No position
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.5K
- User PnL
- -$5
Polymarket Trader
0x8520696102dbd37B556ab06fc8Ac0B84b581eAC1-1772829985249
0x8520696102dbd37b556ab06fc8ac0b84b581eac1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $158.89
- Realized PnL
- $63.25
- Win rate
- 40%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 5
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $850.08
- Potential profit
- $850.08
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $80.38
- Potential payout
- $574.14
- Potential profit
- $493.76
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$93.62
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $25
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $117.86
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $5
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $140.48
- Potential profit
- $140.48
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $20.92
- Potential payout
- $126.8
- Potential profit
- $105.88
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$4.08
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$17
Yes position
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $85
- Potential profit
- $85
- User PnL
- -$1.7
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $4.14
- Potential payout
- $81.97
- Potential profit
- $77.83
- Multiplier
- 19.80x
- User PnL
- -$0.86
Yes position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $10
- Potential payout
- $71.43
- Potential profit
- $61.43
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $52.17
- Potential profit
- $52.17
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $51.51
- Potential profit
- $51.51
- User PnL
- -$12.63
Yes position
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $47.85
- Potential profit
- $47.85
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.43
- Potential profit
- $33.43
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $2.08
- Potential payout
- $16.67
- Potential profit
- $14.58
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.92
No position
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $13.49
- Potential payout
- $15.69
- Potential profit
- $2.2
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.94
Yes position
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $2.88
- Potential payout
- $14.03
- Potential profit
- $11.15
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$2.12
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $154.77
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5
Yes position
Will "The Bride!" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
Ends Mar 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$10.19
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- -$76.33
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 14% 142.86 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 6% 83.33 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 11.5% 52.17 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 11.1% 688.12 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 34.1% 362.55 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 55.2% 362.55 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 22% 68.18 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 93% 230.94 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 27% 325.93 shares
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 30.2% 297.37 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 27% 255.56 shares
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?No 0.2% 2,500 shares