we-are-the-world2

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $312.98
Potential payout: $313.45
Potential profit: $0.47
User PnL: $10.54

Yes position

Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.38
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $249.63
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.63

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $6.01
Potential payout: $218.59
Potential profit: $212.58
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$0.55

Yes position

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $2.46
Potential payout: $213.65
Potential profit: $211.19
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$0.11

No position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 97.9%
Current value: $190.66
Potential payout: $194.85
Potential profit: $4.19
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.88

Yes position

Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $171.37
Potential payout: $187.29
Potential profit: $15.92
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $2.81

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $177.5
Potential payout: $178.58
Potential profit: $1.07
User PnL: $0.12

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $82.98
Potential payout: $134.92
Potential profit: $51.94
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: -$13.74

Yes position

Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $124.06
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

No one announced as next James Bond?

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $104.13
Potential payout: $107.13
Potential profit: $3
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$1.01

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $100.02
Potential payout: $103.76
Potential profit: $3.74
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $2.56

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $103
Potential profit: $103
User PnL: -$80.34

No position

Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $97.14
Potential payout: $97.63
Potential profit: $0.49
User PnL: $3.97

No position

Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $92.74
Potential payout: $92.79
Potential profit: $0.05
User PnL: $1.99

Yes position

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $2.23
Potential payout: $87.62
Potential profit: $85.39
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$1.43

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $3.16
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $59.34
Multiplier: 19.80x
User PnL: $0.09

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $59.02
Potential payout: $62.46
Potential profit: $3.44
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $5.99

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.07
Potential profit: $57.07
User PnL: -$10.84

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $52.21
Potential payout: $52.5
Potential profit: $0.29
User PnL: $3.39

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.2%
Current value: $3.08
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $46.93
Multiplier: 16.26x
User PnL: -$1.13

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.36
Potential profit: $49.36
User PnL: -$26.8

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.82
Potential profit: $48.82
User PnL: -$37.59

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $285.09

Yes position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: $91.22

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.38

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $68.21

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $57.12

No position

Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.67

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $38.18

Power Rangers position

Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.52

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.18

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.99

Valerio Aboian position

Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.92

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $19.02

No position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.72

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.65

4ikibamboni position

Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.8

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $15.02

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.87

Mayar Sherif position

Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14

Yes position

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.34

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 38.9%
Multiplier: 2.57x
User PnL: $9.86

No position

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.57

No position

Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.42

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.03

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?