Yes position
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $87.95
- Potential profit
- $87.95
- User PnL
- -$8.79
Polymarket Trader
Orculus
0x857a3e634cc289db0fbccd4c5953b63264cb6f66
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.74
- Realized PnL
- $286.22
- Win rate
- 45.8%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $5.74
- Potential payout
- $42.55
- Potential profit
- $36.81
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$6.85
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $242.05
No position
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40
Yes position
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.65
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.33
Yes position
Will Donald Trump's tie be red?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.27
Up position
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.8
Yes position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.25
Down position
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.49
Yes position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.37
Up position
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.88
Yes position
Will Spain join the Board of Peace?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.87
Yes position
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
US evacuates Guadalajara consulate by Feb 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
Ends Feb 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Multiplier
- 36.36x
- User PnL
- -$5.48
Yes position
Will Sweden join the Board of Peace?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6.36
Yes position
Will Belgium join the Board of Peace?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6.45
Yes position
Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$7.26
Yes position
Will Switzerland join the Board of Peace?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7.37
Yes position
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$7.46
Yes position
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$7.57
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026?Yes 29.6% 42.55 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?No 0.1% 20,000 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?No 0.1% 20,000 shares
- Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?Yes 5.1% 157.81 shares
- Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?Yes 7.3% 157.81 shares
- US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 28.9% 15.62 shares
- Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?Yes 1.9% 125 shares
- Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?Yes 1.3% 216.05 shares
- Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?Yes 5% 50.74 shares
- Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?Yes 2% 83.33 shares
- Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Yes 91.2% 2.08 shares
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?Yes 22% 90.91 shares