Polymarket Trader

DeFiant

0x8591b8885b1d635c6ff6950bb8f1f116f21943f6

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $702
Realized PnL: $1.76K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 39%
Current value: $702
Potential payout: $1.8K
Potential profit: $1.1K
Multiplier: 2.56x
User PnL: -$248

Yes position

Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$235.5

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $600
User PnL: -$330

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $509.99
Potential profit: $509.99
User PnL: -$138.72

No position

Maduro out by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $350
Potential profit: $350
User PnL: -$217

No position

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $325.58
Potential profit: $325.58
User PnL: -$37.44

Yes position

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$1.2

Yes position

Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $270
Potential profit: $270
User PnL: -$3.24

Yes position

Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $255
Potential profit: $255
User PnL: -$37.49

Yes position

Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$53.5

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$72

Yes position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $180
Potential profit: $180
User PnL: -$9.9

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $157
Potential profit: $157
User PnL: -$29.83

Yes position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $140
Potential profit: $140
User PnL: -$89.6

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $128
Potential profit: $128
User PnL: -$3.95

No position

Will the 1st pick in the 2026 Pro Football draft be a QB?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$8.38

Yes position

Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $60
User PnL: -$6.6

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$6.6

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $35.71
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$3.9

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$7.6

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08K

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.24

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $105

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.99

No position

Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51

Gold position

First to 5k: Gold or ETH?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40

Yes position

Will Usyk beat Fury?

Ends Dec 21, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.7

No position

EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.94

Yes position

Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?

Ends Oct 15, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.5

No position

Will Ethereum hit $3,000 in December?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.3

No position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22

Yes position

Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.18

Yes position

Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.66

No position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.23

Yes position

Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?

Ends Dec 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.88

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.7

Yes position

Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.6

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by October 15?

Ends Oct 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.5

No position

Russian strike on Poland by December 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.5

No position

Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.6

No position

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?

Ends Dec 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

No 27.2% 40.28 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?

No 47.6% 1,050 shares
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?

Yes 3% 499.6 shares
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?

Yes 10% 15.6 shares
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May?

No 11.5% 80 shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

No 55% 1,000 shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

No 50% 800 shares
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?

No 13.4% 1,000 shares
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?

No 14% 1,000 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

No 55% 600 shares
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Yes 11% 60 shares
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?

Yes 1.2% 270 shares