Polymarket Trader

Knowyourball

@mewnitmew

0x8594c920aebb0fdbd76ec860a558017a69037eed

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $4.07K
Realized PnL: $4.56K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $702.51
Potential payout: $767.77
Potential profit: $65.26
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $146.12

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $493.52
Potential payout: $521.69
Potential profit: $28.17
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $92.6

Yes position

Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $339.74
Potential payout: $481.91
Potential profit: $142.16
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $1.75

Yes position

Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 76%
Current value: $343.09
Potential payout: $451.43
Potential profit: $108.34
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $85.49

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $28.26
Potential payout: $434.78
Potential profit: $406.52
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$171.74

No position

Kash Patel out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $378
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $22
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $104

Yes position

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $275.35
Potential payout: $331.75
Potential profit: $56.4
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $21.35

Yes position

Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $318.88
Potential payout: $320
Potential profit: $1.12
User PnL: $114.08

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $238.69
Potential payout: $298.37
Potential profit: $59.67
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $38.69

Yes position

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 60.4%
Current value: $125.65
Potential payout: $208.03
Potential profit: $82.38
Multiplier: 1.66x
User PnL: $6.64

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $17.15
Potential payout: $180.56
Potential profit: $163.41
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$12.85

Yes position

Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 40%
Current value: $69.8
Potential payout: $174.51
Potential profit: $104.71
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: -$30.2

No position

Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 60%
Current value: $100.04
Potential payout: $166.73
Potential profit: $66.69
Multiplier: 1.67x
User PnL: -$10.7

Yes position

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $108.75
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $41.25
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $15.33
Potential payout: $133.33
Potential profit: $118
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$4.67

Yes position

Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $109.09
Potential payout: $129.87
Potential profit: $20.78
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $9.09

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $82.37
Potential payout: $110.57
Potential profit: $28.19
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $12.37

Yes position

Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 48%
Current value: $48
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $52
Multiplier: 2.08x
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $73.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $26.5
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $34.49
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $65.51
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$1.51

No position

Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $15.9
Potential payout: $99.36
Potential profit: $83.46
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$3.97

No position

Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $58.81
Potential payout: $97.21
Potential profit: $38.4
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $18.81

No position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $16.4
Potential payout: $91.1
Potential profit: $74.7
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: $1.39

No position

Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $78.2
Potential payout: $85
Potential profit: $6.8
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $11.2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $535.27

No position

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $373.04

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $327.26

Yes position

Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $262.82

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $225.79

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $202.55

Yes position

Will Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $185.93

Yes position

Will Amy Allen win Songwriter of the Year, Non-Classical at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $182.99

No position

Kash Patel out by April 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $182.29

Yes position

Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170.87

Yes position

Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $164

Yes position

Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Independent Game at the 2025 Game Awards?

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $157.26

Yes position

Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)

Ends Dec 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $147.06

Yes position

Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $146.61

Yes position

Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $145.88

Yes position

Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $145.75

Yes position

Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $145.09

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.55

Yes position

Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $128.62

Yes position

Will Senegal win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025?

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125.44

No position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 81.7%
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $125

Yes position

Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?

Ends Mar 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $121.64

Yes position

Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $117.39

Yes position

Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.67

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5

Over 55% 18.18 shares
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5

Under 59% 25.42 shares
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?

Yes 59% 16.95 shares
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Yes 57% 52.63 shares
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?

Yes 76% 13.16 shares
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 65% 76.92 shares
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5

Over 48% 33.33 shares
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?

Yes 42% 37.73 shares
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

No 38.8% 25.78 shares
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?

Yes 8% 125 shares
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?

No 53% 47.17 shares
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?

Yes 62% 55.55 shares