thefakenick

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $3.52K
Potential payout: $4.67K
Potential profit: $1.14K
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $757.28

No position

Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $209.95
Potential payout: $4.28K
Potential profit: $4.07K
Multiplier: 20.41x
User PnL: $29.99

Yes position

Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $297.5
Potential payout: $3.5K
Potential profit: $3.2K
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$32.5

Yes position

Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $1.26K
Potential payout: $2.9K
Potential profit: $1.64K
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $32.44

Yes position

Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.1%
Current value: $211.96
Potential payout: $2.62K
Potential profit: $2.4K
Multiplier: 12.35x
User PnL: $66.12

Yes position

Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $662.5
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $1.84K
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$37.5

Yes position

Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $337.5
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.16K
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $12.5

No position

Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $209.26
Potential payout: $2.46K
Potential profit: $2.25K
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$36.93

No position

Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $163.81
Potential payout: $2.18K
Potential profit: $2.02K
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $8.42

Yes position

Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $16
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.98K
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$84

No position

Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $1.49K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $510
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $789.99
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.21K
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $789.98
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.21K
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $10

No position

Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $309.98
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.69K
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $30

No position

Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $1.95K
Potential payout: $1.98K
Potential profit: $30.67
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $206.74

Yes position

Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.88K
Potential profit: $1.88K
User PnL: -$7.53

No position

Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $1.74K
Potential payout: $1.78K
Potential profit: $40.12
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $42.68

Yes position

Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $921.44
Potential payout: $1.66K
Potential profit: $738.81
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $8.33

No position

Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.65K
Potential profit: $1.65K
User PnL: -$527.25

Yes position

Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $1.42K
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $184.54
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $810.39

No position

Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $27.65
Potential payout: $1.38K
Potential profit: $1.36K
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: -$57.59

Yes position

Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $1.06K
Potential payout: $1.29K
Potential profit: $232.08
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $12.89

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.23K

Yes position

No airdrop in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.03K

No position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.66K

Yes position

Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.04K

Yes position

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.98K

Yes position

Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.51K

Yes position

Will Internazionale win Group E at the FIFA Club World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.43K

No position

Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: $3.36K

Yes position

Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.29K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.9K

Spurs position

Spurs vs. Thunder

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.85K

Yes position

Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.59K

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25?

Ends Jul 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.58K

Yes position

Will Serhou Guirassy be the top Champions League scorer?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.56K

No position

Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 73.5%
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $1.48K

No position

Will the Monad public sale commitments be less than $400M?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.47K

Yes position

Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.28K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?

Ends Oct 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.27K

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.23K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

Ends Oct 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.23K

No position

Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.12K

No position

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11?

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.12K

Yes position

Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?