0x85Be1DBEB4d12Cf0C87D9e0E72382303EF34FE8B-1770218522391

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $4.38
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.25K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.63

Yes position

Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $6.88
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.24K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $1.88

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $6.84
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $1.13K
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: $1.84

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $3.57
Potential payout: $893.33
Potential profit: $889.76
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$1.43

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $3.69
Potential payout: $738.06
Potential profit: $734.37
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$1.31

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $3.55
Potential payout: $644.77
Potential profit: $641.22
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$1.45

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $588.24
Potential profit: $588.24
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $4.92
Potential payout: $578.87
Potential profit: $573.95
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $19.17
Potential payout: $555.56
Potential profit: $536.39
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: $14.17

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $555.54
Potential profit: $555.54
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $407.53
Potential profit: $407.53
User PnL: -$63.72

Yes position

Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $252.51
Potential profit: $252.51
User PnL: -$50

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $204.09
Potential profit: $204.09
User PnL: -$63.27

Yes position

Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $179.78
Potential profit: $179.78
User PnL: -$100

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $148.64
Potential profit: $148.64
User PnL: -$29.79

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $128
Potential profit: $128
User PnL: -$32

Yes position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $4.09
Potential payout: $121.95
Potential profit: $117.87
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: -$0.91

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $98.82
Potential profit: $98.82
User PnL: -$31.62

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.65
Potential profit: $66.65
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.65
Potential profit: $66.65
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.2
Potential profit: $66.2
User PnL: -$15.87

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $64.44
Potential profit: $64.44
User PnL: -$15.86

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $64
Potential profit: $64
User PnL: -$16

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.58

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.97

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.31

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.11

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.38

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.44

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.24

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.82

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.7

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.86

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.88

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.93

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.91

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.82

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.33

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.95

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.06

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.97

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.72

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.58

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.05

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.99

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET