Polymarket Trader

Azrarn

0x863176c50b2039c67811cdf0a28da82c854f9a73

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $52.91K
Realized PnL: $183.78K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 19
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40K
Potential profit: $40K
User PnL: -$24.18K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32.47K
Potential profit: $32.47K
User PnL: -$18.47K

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $14.94K
Potential payout: $31.45K
Potential profit: $16.51K
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $2.12K

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $5.35K
Potential payout: $19.82K
Potential profit: $14.47K
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: -$6.5K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.38K
Potential profit: $16.38K
User PnL: -$12.15K

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $13.64K
Potential payout: $14.67K
Potential profit: $1.03K
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.66K

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $12.17K
Potential payout: $13.68K
Potential profit: $1.5K
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $2.72K

Yes position

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $5.81K
Potential payout: $9.61K
Potential profit: $3.8K
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: -$1.19K

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.89K
Potential profit: $8.89K
User PnL: -$939.31

Yes position

Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.78K
Potential profit: $3.78K
User PnL: -$1.98K

Yes position

Will Russia enter Shevchenko by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.68K
Potential profit: $3.68K
User PnL: -$678.53

Yes position

Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.59K
Potential profit: $3.59K
User PnL: -$1.24K

Yes position

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.35K
Potential profit: $2.35K
User PnL: -$930.23

Yes position

Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.27K
Potential profit: $2.27K
User PnL: -$415.97

Yes position

Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $1.3K
User PnL: -$234.79

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $1.01K
User PnL: -$523.41

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $889.61
Potential payout: $901.78
Potential profit: $12.17
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $449.55

Yes position

Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $101.04
Potential payout: $673.62
Potential profit: $572.58
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$140.32

No position

Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $9.99
Potential payout: $10.05
Potential profit: $0.06
User PnL: $2.15

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.95K

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.69K

Yes position

Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.32K

No position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.62K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.41K

No position

Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.19K

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.05K

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.05K

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.84K

No position

Will Russia recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.05K

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in December?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.05K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.69K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.51K

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.22K

No position

Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31?

Ends Sep 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.2K

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.1K

No position

Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.06K

Yes position

Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.78K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.69K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.67K

No position

Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.62K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.37K

No position

Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.34K

No position

Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.33K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?

Yes 4% 1,635.38 shares
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?

Yes 5% 464.2 shares
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?

Yes 18% 100.86 shares
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?

Yes 6% 2,663.84 shares
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?

Yes 7% 2,868.24 shares
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?

Yes 9% 2,672.99 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Yes 8% 207 shares
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?

Yes 10% 1,687.46 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

No 73.7% 633.65 shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

No 89% 4,608.99 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

No 75.9% 238.47 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

No 76.1% 176.08 shares