Polymarket Trader

ferzamo

0x866df85be8d4bf95e27b391b912d3fe6ae73d337

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $183.9
Realized PnL: $1.21K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 19
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 9.3%
Current value: $63.76
Potential payout: $685.59
Potential profit: $621.83
Multiplier: 10.75x
User PnL: $15.77

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $4.56
Potential payout: $294.12
Potential profit: $289.56
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$0.44

Yes position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $3.06
Potential payout: $180
Potential profit: $176.94
Multiplier: 58.82x
User PnL: -$3.84

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $130.35
Potential profit: $130.35
User PnL: -$95.16

Algeria position

Spread: Argentina (-1.5)

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125.91
Potential profit: $125.91
User PnL: -$0.13

No position

Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $48.53
Potential payout: $98.04
Potential profit: $49.51
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: -$1.47

No position

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $12.09
Potential payout: $80.63
Potential profit: $68.54
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$37.91

Under position

France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $67.44
Potential profit: $67.44
User PnL: -$22.26

No position

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.96
Potential profit: $59.96
User PnL: -$8.79

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.69
Potential profit: $55.69
User PnL: -$6.68

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $44.48
Potential profit: $44.48
User PnL: -$25

No position

France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.7
Potential profit: $41.7
User PnL: -$19.4

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $32.19
Potential payout: $32.19
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $8.37

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.32
Potential profit: $31.32
User PnL: -$4.9

No position

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 92.3%
Current value: $19.22
Potential payout: $20.83
Potential profit: $1.61
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$0.78

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.25
Potential profit: $18.25
User PnL: -$5.66

Yes position

Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.53
Potential profit: $11.53
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $0.49
Potential payout: $9.22
Potential profit: $8.73
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$2.46

Yes position

Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.81
Potential profit: $5.81
User PnL: -$2.44

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $539.38

No position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $151.55

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.02

No position

Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.54

Yes position

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.66

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $34.92

Yes position

Will Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?

Ends Oct 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.54

Yes position

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $29.03

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.56

Yes position

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $21.8

No position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

No position

Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.08

No position

Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.28

Yes position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.68

No position

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.13

Yes position

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.87

No position

US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.28

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.03

KT Rolster position

LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner

Ends Nov 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.83

Yes position

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.3

Yes position

Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.23

KT Rolster position

LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner

Ends Nov 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.18

No position

Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.14

No position

Maduro mugshot released by Monday?

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.78

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Yes 56.2% 44.48 shares
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?

Yes 7% 14.3 shares
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?

Yes 7% 42.85 shares
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?

Yes 7% 42.85 shares
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?

Yes 7% 42.85 shares
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?

Yes 3.7% 60 shares
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?

Yes 3.9% 60 shares
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?

Yes 3.9% 60 shares
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5

Under 33% 9.09 shares
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5

Under 33% 58.35 shares
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?

No 14% 19.99 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

No 99.6% 23.47 shares