Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $99.88
- Potential payout
- $1.18K
- Potential profit
- $1.08K
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$99.88
Polymarket Trader
0x86c4...7904
0x86c41345c39ed79c671439f9b6c2feaa47b37904
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $124.99
- Realized PnL
- -$24.53
- Win rate
- 33.3%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 12
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $832
- Potential profit
- $832
- User PnL
- -$29.94
Yes position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $25
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $175
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $130.99
- Potential profit
- $130.99
- User PnL
- -$24.89
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $111
- Potential profit
- $111
- User PnL
- -$29.97
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83
- Potential profit
- $83
- User PnL
- -$24.9
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.11
- Potential payout
- $74
- Potential profit
- $73.89
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$24.29
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
BitBoy convicted?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.4
No position
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.07
Yes position
Macron out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.17
No position
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.27
Yes position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
No position
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.53
Yes position
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.65
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$9.14
Yes position
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$16.65
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?Yes 33% 74 shares
- China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?No 85% 15.01 shares
- NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?No 96.3% 20 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 53.8% 83 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 30% 166 shares
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes 13% 10 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?No 88% 5 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?Yes 27% 111 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?Yes 6% 166 shares
- US recession by end of 2026?Yes 25% 200 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 25% 38 shares
- Trump out as President before 2027?Yes 17% 1,175 shares