Polymarket Trader

0x86E5964bc3Ed919e80783DC77B1A4F136b4F7cb2-1761074373691

0x86e5964bc3ed919e80783dc77b1a4f136b4f7cb2

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $480.28
Realized PnL: $412.83
Win rate: 79.2%
Open positions: 14
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $770.03
Potential profit: $770.03
User PnL: -$500

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$232

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $390.99
Potential payout: $397.95
Potential profit: $6.96
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $190.99

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $217.39
Potential profit: $217.39
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$3

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$110

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $89.29
Potential payout: $158.06
Potential profit: $68.77
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$8.71

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $147.57
Potential profit: $147.57
User PnL: -$105.99

Rogue position

StarCraft II: SKillous vs Rogue (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage 2 - Group B

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$4.3

Yes position

Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$10

Classic position

StarCraft II: Classic vs SHIN (BO5) - RSL Revival Playoffs

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.74
Potential profit: $21.74
User PnL: -$10

No position

US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.33
Potential profit: $6.33
User PnL: -$5

Solar position

StarCraft II: SHIN vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Seeding Group B

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $1
User PnL: -$0.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $124.63

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.3%
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $61.79

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $61.46

No position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $46.62

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $26.85

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $23.21

Lambo position

StarCraft II: Lambo vs SHIN (BO5) - RSL Revival Playoffs

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.25

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: $11.14

No position

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.7%
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $8

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: $7.5

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.85

herO position

StarCraft II: Solar vs herO (BO5) - RSL Revival Playoffs

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Makhachev position

UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.7

herO position

StarCraft II: herO vs Classic (BO3) - Global StarCraft II League Group Stage 2 - Group A

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

Clem position

StarCraft II: Clem vs Lambo (BO5) - RSL Revival Playoffs

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.11

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.4%
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: $0.81

SHIN position

StarCraft II: SHIN vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Seeding Group B

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 4.3%
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: $0

Rogue position

StarCraft II: Rogue vs Gerald (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage 2 - Group B

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Gerald position

StarCraft II: Rogue vs Gerald (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage 2 - Group B

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Classic position

StarCraft II: herO vs Classic (BO3) - Global StarCraft II League Group Stage 2 - Group A

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.99

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

No 94% 250 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

No 62% 158.06 shares
StarCraft II: Lambo vs SHIN (BO5) - RSL Revival Playoffs

Lambo 27% 5.18 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 55% 200 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Yes 65.1% 100 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Yes 70% 100 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

No 91% 250 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 47% 212.77 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 54% 185.19 shares
StarCraft II: SHIN vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Seeding Group B

SHIN 99.9% 1 shares
StarCraft II: Clem vs Lambo (BO5) - RSL Revival Playoffs

Clem 90% 11.11 shares
StarCraft II: Solar vs herO (BO5) - RSL Revival Playoffs

herO 66.7% 15 shares