No position
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $7.54
- Potential payout
- $175.82
- Potential profit
- $168.28
- Multiplier
- 23.31x
- User PnL
- -$11.8
Polymarket Trader
RobbyMoon
0x87907543f81cc424f3754a753bba8f64a37e165a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $114.45
- Realized PnL
- $10.97
- Win rate
- 38.9%
- Open positions
- 17
- Closed positions
- 18
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.4%
- Current value
- $27.64
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $115.21
- Multiplier
- 5.17x
- User PnL
- -$22.36
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $6.43
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $136.43
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$3.57
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 11.4%
- Current value
- $14.19
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $110.81
- Multiplier
- 8.81x
- User PnL
- -$10.81
Yes position
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $14.2
- Potential payout
- $113.64
- Potential profit
- $99.43
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$10.8
Yes position
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $4.21
- Potential payout
- $98.04
- Potential profit
- $93.83
- Multiplier
- 23.31x
- User PnL
- -$0.79
Yes position
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $96.77
- Potential profit
- $96.77
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $66.67
- Potential profit
- $66.67
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $19.86
- Potential payout
- $57.58
- Potential profit
- $37.72
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- $14.86
Yes position
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $1.38
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $48.63
- Multiplier
- 36.36x
- User PnL
- -$4.63
Yes position
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $7.88
- Potential payout
- $40.4
- Potential profit
- $32.52
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$6.12
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $2.41
- Potential payout
- $37.04
- Potential profit
- $34.63
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$7.59
Yes position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $31.25
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23%
- Current value
- $5.61
- Potential payout
- $24.39
- Potential profit
- $18.78
- Multiplier
- 4.35x
- User PnL
- -$4.39
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.42
- Potential profit
- $10.42
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $3.1
- Potential payout
- $9
- Potential profit
- $5.9
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.64
Yes position
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.33
No position
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.9
No position
GPT-5.3 released by February 20, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.69
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.95
Yes position
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.61
No position
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.12
Yes position
Military action against Iran ends on April 27, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will the US strike 5 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Joe Biden be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Trump say "Homan" during the State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.9
No position
New 10% US blanket tariff goes into effect by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$12.37
Yes position
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Yes 22% 113.64 shares
- Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?Yes 41.1% 30.1 shares
- Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?Yes 78.9% 12.36 shares
- Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Yes 19% 105.26 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes 41% 24.39 shares
- Military action against Iran ends on April 27, 2026?Yes 3.1% 128.64 shares
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?Yes 16% 31.25 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes 15% 66.67 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?No 48% 10.42 shares
- Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?Yes 12% 50 shares
- Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Yes 17.1% 58.64 shares
- Will Trump say "Homan" during the State of the Union address?Yes 40% 22.25 shares