0x87a03D317877070c6E7D6b3a353038Acbc6BD806-1767818993772

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.9K
Potential profit: $1.9K
User PnL: -$35

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.76K
Potential profit: $1.76K
User PnL: -$110

Yes position

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $4.3
Potential payout: $1.72K
Potential profit: $1.72K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$115.7

Yes position

Crude Oil all time high by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.34K
Potential profit: $1.34K
User PnL: -$150

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.25K
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will the US strike Somalia next?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $1.14K
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $3.61
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $1.03K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$36.39

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $714.29
Potential profit: $714.29
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $635.88
Potential profit: $635.88
User PnL: -$220

Yes position

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $2.1
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $597.9
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$27.9

Yes position

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $18.57
Potential payout: $285.71
Potential profit: $267.14
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$1.43

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $271.2
Potential profit: $271.2
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $245.45
Potential profit: $245.45
User PnL: -$50

No position

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $216.67
Potential profit: $216.67
User PnL: -$16

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $205.13
Potential profit: $205.13
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $85.62
Potential payout: $192.41
Potential profit: $106.78
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: $45.62

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $172.68
Potential profit: $172.68
User PnL: -$32.5

Yes position

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.36
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.5
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$4.64

Yes position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $133.33
Potential profit: $123.33
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.24
Potential payout: $117.65
Potential profit: $117.41
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$19.76

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $105.72
Potential profit: $105.72
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $1.56
Potential payout: $100.5
Potential profit: $98.94
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$18.44

No position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Odds of Khamenei out by January 31 over 30% on Sunday?

Ends Jan 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.9
Potential profit: $99.9
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $667.98

Yes position

US bank failure by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $306.63

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $245.32

Yes position

Canada recession before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $148.35

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.48

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.32

Yes position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.47

Yes position

Will Don Lemon be criminally charged?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.3

No position

Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.29

Gold position

First to 5k: Gold or ETH?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.62

Yes position

Will Tim Walz activate the National Guard in MN by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.51

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: January

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.04

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.84

No position

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.2

No position

Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.86

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of January 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.73

No position

ICE shooter charged by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.25

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.64

Yes position

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Implied probability: 13.8%
Multiplier: 7.25x
User PnL: $9.33

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.03

Yes position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.96

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.71

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

No position

Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31?