No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $661.02
- Potential payout
- $696.18
- Potential profit
- $35.16
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $61.02
Polymarket Trader
fishka
0x87c57987633ec3bfc543638dfdf4dbc0a527053b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.72K
- Realized PnL
- $629.49
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 21
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $198.46
- Potential payout
- $490.03
- Potential profit
- $291.57
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $52.46
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $256.32
- Potential payout
- $403.65
- Potential profit
- $147.33
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- -$43.68
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $367.57
- Potential profit
- $367.57
- User PnL
- -$340
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $283.25
- Potential payout
- $286.84
- Potential profit
- $3.59
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $33.25
Yes position
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.1%
- Current value
- $89.31
- Potential payout
- $262.3
- Potential profit
- $172.98
- Multiplier
- 2.94x
- User PnL
- $39.31
No position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $222.22
- Potential profit
- $222.22
- User PnL
- -$60
No position
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $198.38
- Potential profit
- $198.38
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $185.62
- Potential profit
- $185.62
- User PnL
- -$130
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $84.43
- Potential payout
- $163.93
- Potential profit
- $79.51
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- -$15.57
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $155.93
- Potential profit
- $155.93
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $120.48
- Potential profit
- $120.48
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $119.05
- Potential profit
- $119.05
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.9%
- Current value
- $18.76
- Potential payout
- $89.99
- Potential profit
- $71.23
- Multiplier
- 4.80x
- User PnL
- -$5.44
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $83.33
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $65.58
- Potential payout
- $72.46
- Potential profit
- $6.88
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $15.58
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $68.97
- Potential profit
- $68.97
- User PnL
- -$40
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $62.41
- Potential payout
- $62.5
- Potential profit
- $0.09
- User PnL
- $12.41
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $0.76
- Potential payout
- $52.63
- Potential profit
- $51.87
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$9.24
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $0.65
- Potential payout
- $41.67
- Potential profit
- $41.02
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$9.35
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $1.67
- Potential payout
- $20.83
- Potential profit
- $19.17
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$3.33
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $131.23
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.63
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.88
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.47
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.24
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.43
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.46
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.46
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.16
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.46
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.1
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.6
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.85
Yes position
Will Putin visit China by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.66
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.55
No position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.5
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.92
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.89
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.89
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.91
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.94
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.91
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.69
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.67
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 75% 266.67 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 73% 136.99 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 61% 163.93 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Yes 24% 41.67 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No 58% 68.97 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?No 83% 120.48 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?No 3.2% 155.93 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 84% 119.05 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 91% 219.78 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 92% 217.39 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 24% 20.83 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 95% 252.63 shares