No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $42.17
- Potential payout
- $216.25
- Potential profit
- $174.08
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$5.83
Polymarket Trader
notsure123
0x87fc413524c5ba6232995334d4a63bdf07df1515
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $170.08
- Realized PnL
- $661.97
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $30.77
- Potential payout
- $186.51
- Potential profit
- $155.73
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$79.23
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $162.48
- Potential profit
- $162.48
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100.96
- Potential profit
- $100.96
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $8.93
- Potential payout
- $71.43
- Potential profit
- $62.5
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$11.07
Yes position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $71.43
- Potential profit
- $71.43
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $25.81
- Potential payout
- $70.7
- Potential profit
- $44.9
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.7
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $52.28
- Potential profit
- $52.28
- User PnL
- -$21
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38.26
- Potential profit
- $38.26
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $33.89
- Potential payout
- $36.64
- Potential profit
- $2.75
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $2.89
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $19.51
- Potential payout
- $28.08
- Potential profit
- $8.57
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $1.51
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $9
- Potential payout
- $10.53
- Potential profit
- $1.53
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.57
- Potential profit
- $1.57
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $244.79
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.68
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.51
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.86
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.71
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.43
Yes position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.77
Yes position
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.96
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.78
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- User PnL
- $13.31
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.27
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.95
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.9
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.52
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.71
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.1
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.32
Yes position
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.44
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.2
Yes position
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.16
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.34
Yes position
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.11
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.09
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 18% 38.89 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 70% 14.29 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 99.4% 16.9 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 58% 13.79 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 76% 10.53 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 97.7% 16.9 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 13% 7.69 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 0.6% 41.57 shares
- Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?Yes 0.3% 148.7 shares
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?No 73.8% 64.1 shares
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?No 78% 64.1 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 12% 41.57 shares