Mr.Bonsai

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $6.81
Potential payout: $412.9
Potential profit: $406.09
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$3.19

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $5.8
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $394.2
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$4.2

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $5.22
Potential payout: $97.65
Potential profit: $92.42
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$4.74

Yes position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $3.73
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $73.19
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: -$6.27

Yes position

Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $59.7
Potential profit: $59.67
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.97

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $2.06
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $36.4
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$2.94

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $2.55
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $27.45
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$1.45

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.14
Potential profit: $27.14
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.12
Potential payout: $20.69
Potential profit: $20.57
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$5.88

Yes position

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $1.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.3
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$1.3

Yes position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $1.38
Potential payout: $16.19
Potential profit: $14.81
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$3.62

Yes position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $1.72
Potential payout: $15.63
Potential profit: $13.91
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$3.28

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.16
Potential profit: $13.16
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $11.7
Potential profit: $11.67
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$1.97

Yes position

NATO dissolves before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $0.46
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $10.65
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$0.54

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.31
Potential profit: $10.31
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $0.6
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.4
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$1.4

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $0.43
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.58
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.58

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $0.89
Potential payout: $4.55
Potential profit: $3.66
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$0.11

Yes position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.35
Potential profit: $4.35
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.35
Potential profit: $4.35
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $0.53
Potential payout: $2.86
Potential profit: $2.33
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$0.47

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.95

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.36

Yes position

Will Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?

Ends Oct 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will Israel strike 2 countries in November 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.38

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.3

Yes position

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.12

Yes position

US x Saudi security agreement by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.35

Yes position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.33

Yes position

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.31

Yes position

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.08

Yes position

Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 3.7%
Multiplier: 27.03x
User PnL: $1.93

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.52

Yes position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?

Implied probability: 25%
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: $1.4

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.36

Yes position

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.29

Makhachev position

UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 23.1%
Multiplier: 4.34x
User PnL: $0.98

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.69

No position

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.47

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?