Polymarket Trader

kondor-keselyu

0x88945a8425b51c20375cbbc1ba0c9c4b5ba10ab9

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $11.57
Realized PnL: -$6.42
Win rate: 25%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.57K
Potential profit: $1.57K
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $1.98
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $39.69
Multiplier: 21.05x
User PnL: $0.98

Yes position

Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in June?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $1.95
Potential payout: $30.3
Potential profit: $28.35
Multiplier: 15.50x
User PnL: $0.95

Yes position

Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Pennsylvania events?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.03
Potential profit: $27.03
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump's remarks not air?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.26
Potential profit: $23.26
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $1.96
Potential payout: $18.7
Potential profit: $16.73
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$2.29

Yes position

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $1.56
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $9.56
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$0.44

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $10.88
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$0.77

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.6%
Current value: $0.54
Potential payout: $9.8
Potential profit: $9.26
Multiplier: 18.02x
User PnL: -$0.46

Yes position

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $6.83
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $7.38
Potential profit: $7.28
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$1.9

Yes position

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 28%
Current value: $1.75
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $4.5
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next PMQ?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $5.56
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.13
Potential profit: $5.13
User PnL: -$2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Something position

Nothing Ever Happens: February

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.16

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.95

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.87

No position

Will the US strike Somalia next?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.78

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.72

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.64

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.25

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 29?

Ends Jan 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$0.69

Yes position

US strike on Mexico by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Iran leadership change by March 13?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the US strike Iran next?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump say "Khamenei" this week? (March 22)

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.14

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$9.81

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in June?

Yes 3.3% 30.3 shares
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?

Yes 12% 8.33 shares
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next PMQ?

Yes 18% 5.56 shares
Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Pennsylvania events?

Yes 3.7% 27.03 shares
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?

Yes 32% 6.25 shares
Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Yes 18% 11.11 shares
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Yes 9% 11.11 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 10.2% 9.8 shares
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes 2.4% 41.67 shares
Will Trump's remarks not air?

Yes 4.3% 23.26 shares
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?

Yes 0.1% 1,000 shares
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

No 51% 7.31 shares