No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$100
Polymarket Trader
daniel.sousa.me
0x8936214e1dab02e74e5469d76b4c55cfe99cd010
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $13.68
- Realized PnL
- $5.61K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 17
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.39K
- Potential profit
- $1.39K
- User PnL
- -$460.84
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.97
- Potential profit
- $999.97
- User PnL
- -$259.99
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $241.86
- Potential profit
- $241.86
- User PnL
- -$165.19
Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $9.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $40.75
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- $4.7
Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $0.68
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $49.33
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$3.87
Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $0.7
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $49.3
- Multiplier
- 71.43x
- User PnL
- -$3.85
Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $0.78
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $49.23
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$3.77
Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $1.73
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $48.28
- Multiplier
- 28.99x
- User PnL
- -$2.82
Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $0.5
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $49.5
- Multiplier
- 100.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.05
Yes position
Will Juan Carlos Medrano win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $7
- User PnL
- -$0.63
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.27
- Potential profit
- $4.27
- User PnL
- -$1.41
Yes position
Will Mario Enrique Severich win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1
- Potential profit
- $1
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Yes position
Will Alejandro Mostajo Rueda win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1
- Potential profit
- $1
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Yes position
Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $1
- Potential profit
- $0.95
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.06
Yes position
Will Remigio Ancalle win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1
- Potential profit
- $1
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Yes position
Will Ruth Alina Peralta win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1
- Potential profit
- $1
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 50% and 52%?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $871.29
Yes position
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190–195 in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $475.91
Up position
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on January 30?
Ends Jan 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $357.82
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $318.26
Yes position
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $450–475 in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $289.01
No position
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 49-50°F on December 7?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $268.55
Yes position
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $195–200 in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $215.19
Up position
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on January 28?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $206.28
No position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $195.42
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $194.39
Yes position
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185–190 in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $191.98
Yes position
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $450-$460 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $189.5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 49-50°F on December 9?
Ends Dec 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $186.04
No position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $177.94
No position
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $169.99
No position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $162.64
No position
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $155.35
Yes position
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $475–500 in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $147.01
No position
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $460-$470 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $144.82
Yes position
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $175–180 in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $142.1
Yes position
Will Amazon dip to $216 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $139.76
No position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $138.12
Yes position
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425–450 in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $137.37
Yes position
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$500 in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $130.28
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 6% 298 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?Yes 29.8% 15.99 shares
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No 85% 432.65 shares
- Will SC União Torreense win on 2026-05-24?No 99% 105.72 shares
- Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24?No 80% 6.32 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 81% 40 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 83% 727.68 shares
- Will Juan Roberth Flores win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?Yes 8.9% 19.59 shares
- Will Felix Patzi win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?No 84.2% 9.4 shares
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?Yes 12.3% 20 shares
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June?Yes 10% 50.46 shares
- Will Felix Patzi win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?No 78.2% 21 shares