007-Bond

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $2.33K
Potential payout: $2.34K
Potential profit: $8.2
User PnL: $220.76

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $1.9K
Potential payout: $2.1K
Potential profit: $199.5
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $172.41

No position

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 94.9%
Current value: $1.59K
Potential payout: $1.67K
Potential profit: $85.23
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $124.79

No position

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $1.3K
Potential payout: $1.49K
Potential profit: $185.7
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $30.5

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $416.94
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $183.06
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $22.94

No position

Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $568.89
Potential payout: $573.48
Potential profit: $4.59
User PnL: $67.55

No position

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $512.89
Potential payout: $566.73
Potential profit: $53.84
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $97.15

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $493.23
Potential payout: $500.23
Potential profit: $7
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $13.02

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.9%
Current value: $284.69
Potential payout: $299.99
Potential profit: $15.3
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $12.7

No position

Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $242.15
Potential payout: $278.34
Potential profit: $36.18
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $21.98

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $261.15
Potential payout: $264.05
Potential profit: $2.9
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $12.01

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $203.07
Potential payout: $255.43
Potential profit: $52.36
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: -$10.49

No position

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $234.66
Potential payout: $253.68
Potential profit: $19.03
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $19.24

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $162.98
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $37.02
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $2.98

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 47%
Current value: $94
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $106
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: $4

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $154.15
Potential payout: $186.85
Potential profit: $32.7
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$0.2

No position

EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $109.85
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $20.15
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $3.65

No position

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $111
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $9
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $11.4

No position

US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 94.1%
Current value: $98.21
Potential payout: $104.42
Potential profit: $6.21
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.15

No position

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $85.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $14.5
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $7.5

No position

EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $99.3
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $0.7
User PnL: $1.2

No position

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $48.53
Potential payout: $58.12
Potential profit: $9.59
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $6.1

No position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $47.36
Potential payout: $55.39
Potential profit: $8.03
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$0.28

No position

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Implied probability: 92.1%
Current value: $46.05
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $3.95
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $5.55

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Inter Milan advance to the round of 16?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $678.56

Yes position

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $180.26

No position

Will Norway join the Board of Peace?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $145.13

Yes position

Will Russia capture Zaliznychne by February 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.31

No position

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.94

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.56

No position

Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $56.05

Yes position

Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.93

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.1

No position

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.19

No position

Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by December 31?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.86

Yes position

Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.65

No position

Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.42

No position

Kurds declare independence from Iran?

Implied probability: 99.2%
User PnL: $26.8

No position

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $23.59

No position

NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.28

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $23

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.53

Yes position

Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.38

No position

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $17.31

No position

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.17

No position

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by February 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?