Yes position
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $306.03
- Potential payout
- $703.52
- Potential profit
- $397.49
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $38.69
Polymarket Trader
z111-748
@zhao_p42510
0x8951dfc402715deba2cfe1d5ceaae68539046cee
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.01K
- Realized PnL
- $853.97
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $3.3
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $596.7
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$15.9
Yes position
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29%
- Current value
- $158.63
- Potential payout
- $547
- Potential profit
- $388.37
- Multiplier
- 3.45x
- User PnL
- -$25.55
Yes position
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Current value
- $259.34
- Potential payout
- $270
- Potential profit
- $10.67
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $10.93
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $9.27
- Potential payout
- $228.91
- Potential profit
- $219.64
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$83.47
No position
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $190
- Potential profit
- $190
- User PnL
- -$56.31
Yes position
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $115.66
- Potential payout
- $115.66
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $71.71
Yes position
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $63.72
- Potential payout
- $100.35
- Potential profit
- $36.63
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- -$6.11
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 7?
Ends Nov 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $71.43
- Potential profit
- $71.43
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 6?
Ends Nov 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $57.62
- Potential profit
- $57.62
- User PnL
- -$50.36
Yes position
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$11.5
Yes position
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $41.67
- Potential profit
- $41.67
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $17.4
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $22.6
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$2.2
Knicks position
Spurs vs. Knicks
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$22
Yes position
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $17
- Potential payout
- $39.99
- Potential profit
- $22.99
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$1.8
UCF position
Houston vs. UCF
Ends Nov 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $39.54
- Potential profit
- $39.54
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $20.7
- Potential payout
- $36
- Potential profit
- $15.3
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.9
Yes position
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $8.85
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $21.15
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- $0.45
Yes position
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $12.15
- Potential payout
- $29.99
- Potential profit
- $17.84
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $1.35
Yes position
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $10.34
- Potential payout
- $29.99
- Potential profit
- $19.65
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.45
Yes position
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $6.82
- Potential payout
- $29
- Potential profit
- $22.19
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$1.31
Yes position
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.99
- Potential profit
- $19.99
- User PnL
- -$9.39
Yes position
Will another company be accused of insider trading?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $11.11
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.24
- Potential profit
- $6.24
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $421.5
No position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.27
Yes position
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.06
Yes position
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.6
Yes position
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?
Ends Mar 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.2
No position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.41
No position
OpenSea token announcement in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.14
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 10?
Ends Nov 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.29
No position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.01
Yes position
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.17
Yes position
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $11
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.25
Yes position
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $7
Down position
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.93
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5
Up position
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
Ends Feb 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.25
Yes position
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.75
No position
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $2.96
Yes position
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $2.03
No position
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.98
No position
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.87
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8
Yes position
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- $1.5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes 13.5% 715 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes 15.5% 330 shares
- Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 5% 53.12 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes 1.6% 966.16 shares
- Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 28% 75 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Yes 69% 29.99 shares
- Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 1.7% 899.99 shares
- Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 1.7% 1,000 shares
- Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 2.3% 700 shares
- Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 4.3% 485 shares
- Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Yes 57% 37 shares
- Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?Yes 59.6% 37 shares