No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $185.59K
- Potential profit
- $185.59K
- User PnL
- -$1.43K
Polymarket Trader
ef3arc
@ef3arc
0x89cd944aa9cf528142e3557099c6992eb7ce4d7d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $45.55K
- Realized PnL
- $528.69K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $650
- Potential payout
- $100K
- Potential profit
- $99.35K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $2.01K
- Potential payout
- $76K
- Potential profit
- $73.99K
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- $96.75
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.1%
- Current value
- $4.88K
- Potential payout
- $60.58K
- Potential profit
- $55.7K
- Multiplier
- 12.42x
- User PnL
- -$1.43K
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $7.75K
- Potential payout
- $42K
- Potential profit
- $34.25K
- Multiplier
- 5.42x
- User PnL
- $1.03K
Y
Yes position
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24K
- Potential profit
- $24K
- User PnL
- -$2.02K
No position
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.83K
- Potential profit
- $18.83K
- User PnL
- -$4.2K
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.8%
- Current value
- $2.34K
- Potential payout
- $17K
- Potential profit
- $14.66K
- Multiplier
- 7.27x
- User PnL
- -$382.48
Y
Yes position
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.63K
- Potential profit
- $13.63K
- User PnL
- -$271.97
No position
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $10.45K
- Potential payout
- $10.53K
- Potential profit
- $84.28
- User PnL
- $518.56
Y
Yes position
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.05K
- Potential profit
- $10.05K
- User PnL
- -$50.25
Y
Yes position
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.41K
- Potential profit
- $9.41K
- User PnL
- -$213.28
Yes position
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $4.82K
- Potential payout
- $8.39K
- Potential profit
- $3.57K
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$63.44
Yes position
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $115.5
- Potential payout
- $7K
- Potential profit
- $6.88K
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$20.5
Y
Yes position
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.92K
- Potential profit
- $6.92K
- User PnL
- -$302.25
Yes position
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $73.08
- Potential payout
- $6.35K
- Potential profit
- $6.28K
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$3.4K
No position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $4.99K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $7.5
- User PnL
- $32.5
Y
Yes position
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.63K
- Potential profit
- $4.63K
- User PnL
- -$55.85
No position
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 92.9%
- Current value
- $4.1K
- Potential payout
- $4.41K
- Potential profit
- $313.38
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $119.17
Y
Yes position
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.35K
- Potential profit
- $4.35K
- User PnL
- -$126.27
No position
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $3.3K
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $700
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $246.7
Y
Yes position
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.22K
- Potential profit
- $3.22K
- User PnL
- -$64.46
Y
Yes position
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.2K
- Potential profit
- $3.2K
- User PnL
- -$526.96
Yes position
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $67.5
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $2.93K
- Multiplier
- 44.44x
- User PnL
- $34.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $159.08K
No position
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.98K
Yes position
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $58.98K
Yes position
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $29.85K
Yes position
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.25K
Yes position
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $26.35K
Yes position
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $24.17K
Y
Yes position
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.4K
No position
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.93K
Yes position
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.1K
Yes position
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.56K
Texas Longhorns position
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Ends Mar 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.54K
Yes position
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.95K
Yes position
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.47K
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.26K
Yes position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.98K
Yes position
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.3K
Grizzlies position
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.01K
Yes position
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5K
No position
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4K
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.9%
- Multiplier
- 7.78x
- User PnL
- $3.63K
Yes position
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.39K
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.77K
Yes position
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.76K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia?No 98.7% 76.92 shares
- Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia?Yes 1.1% 125 shares
- Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia?Yes 1.1% 200 shares
- Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia?Yes 1.2% 2,009.11 shares
- Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia?Yes 1.2% 2,000 shares
- Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo?No 92% 4,000 shares
- Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?Yes 10% 2,000 shares
- Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?Yes 11% 18.72 shares
- Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo?Yes 2.9% 900 shares
- Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?Yes 17% 1,500 shares
- Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?Yes 18% 866 shares
- Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo?Yes 2.3% 680 shares