SebasZ

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.54
Potential profit: $28.54
User PnL: -$22.75

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $16.06
Potential payout: $16.22
Potential profit: $0.15
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $14.95
Potential payout: $15.34
Potential profit: $0.39
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $4.73
Potential payout: $6.02
Potential profit: $1.3
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$0.27

Yes position

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $2.87
Potential payout: $4.29
Potential profit: $1.41
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $3.09
Potential payout: $3.7
Potential profit: $0.61
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.09

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $3.35
Potential payout: $3.4
Potential profit: $0.05
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

Implied probability: 97.9%
Current value: $3.25
Potential payout: $3.32
Potential profit: $0.07
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.35
Potential profit: $2.35
User PnL: -$2

No position

US bank failure by June 30?

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $2.09
Potential payout: $2.22
Potential profit: $0.13
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.09

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $2.11
Potential payout: $2.14
Potential profit: $0.03
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.72
Potential profit: $1.72
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.64
Potential profit: $1.64
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.47
Potential profit: $1.47
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $1.15
Potential payout: $1.32
Potential profit: $0.16
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.15

Over position

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.22
Potential profit: $1.22
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $0.2
Potential payout: $1.16
Potential profit: $0.97
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$0.8

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $1.15
Potential profit: $0.12
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.09
Potential profit: $1.09
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $1.08
Potential payout: $1.09
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.08

No position

Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30?

Implied probability: 94.7%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $1.08
Potential profit: $0.06
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $1.07
Potential payout: $1.08
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $1.03
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.02

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.86

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.77

Yes position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.9

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.52

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.43

No position

Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.2

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.12

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.99

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.95

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.87

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.84

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.71

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.69

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 96%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.66

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.64

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.54

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.51

No position

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.49

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.4

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.34

No position

Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.29

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $0.28

No position

US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?