Yes position
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $90
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $3.91K
- Multiplier
- 44.44x
- User PnL
- -$10
Polymarket Trader
shilei07
0x8b226fa5c9a6ab62d8c8b190068b5a6081be47a1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $850.34
- Realized PnL
- $769.6
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 21
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17%
- Current value
- $166.74
- Potential payout
- $980.81
- Potential profit
- $814.07
- Multiplier
- 5.88x
- User PnL
- $1.69
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $750
- Potential profit
- $750
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $580
- Potential profit
- $580
- User PnL
- -$1.99
Yes position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $23.18
- Potential payout
- $421.52
- Potential profit
- $398.34
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$32.87
Yes position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $34.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $265.5
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- $1.5
No position
China coup attempt before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $247.33
- Potential payout
- $253.15
- Potential profit
- $5.82
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $16.22
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$7.2
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $79
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $121
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $19
- Potential payout
- $199.99
- Potential profit
- $180.99
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $152
- Potential profit
- $152
- User PnL
- -$64.28
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $148.68
- Potential profit
- $148.68
- User PnL
- -$53.57
No position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $93.38
- Potential payout
- $104.34
- Potential profit
- $10.96
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $19.3
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $101
- Potential profit
- $101
- User PnL
- -$3.74
No position
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $65.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $34.5
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- -$16.5
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $99.99
- User PnL
- -$18
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26%
- Current value
- $26
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $73.99
- Multiplier
- 3.85x
- User PnL
- -$8
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $99.98
- Potential profit
- $99.98
- User PnL
- -$14
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $60
- User PnL
- -$10.8
Yes position
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 10.3%
- Current value
- $5.72
- Potential payout
- $55.79
- Potential profit
- $50.07
- Multiplier
- 9.76x
- User PnL
- $0.98
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $35
- User PnL
- -$6.3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $165
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.16
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.99
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $57.5
Yes position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.56
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $38
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.87
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.95
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11
No position
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.94
No position
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.97
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.5
Yes position
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.8
No position
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.5
No position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes 11% 100 shares
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes 11% 100 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 32% 15.01 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 3.6% 100 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?No 45% 50 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?No 46% 50 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 2.5% 100 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 7% 100 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 19% 12 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes 63% 100 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Yes 23% 22.19 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Yes 22% 196 shares