Yes position
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $48.68
- Potential payout
- $263.16
- Potential profit
- $214.47
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$1.32
Polymarket Trader
MrMartell
0x8b44f04bdc874824af5422fc0da3cf25413933b0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $444.04
- Realized PnL
- $449.2
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $250
- User PnL
- -$107.5
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $41.84
- Potential payout
- $204.08
- Potential profit
- $162.24
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$8.16
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20?
Ends Mar 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $177.56
- Potential profit
- $177.56
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $80.51
- Potential payout
- $130.91
- Potential profit
- $50.4
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$17.67
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $60.33
- Potential payout
- $108.7
- Potential profit
- $48.37
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $10.33
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $30.5
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $69.49
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- -$22.5
Yes position
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Ends Sep 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $61.25
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $22.08
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $11.25
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
Ends Mar 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $81.92
- Potential profit
- $81.92
- User PnL
- -$49.28
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $80
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $75
- Potential profit
- $75
- User PnL
- -$37.5
No position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $55.56
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$44
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $49.98
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $23.48
Yes position
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $49.02
- Potential profit
- $49.02
- User PnL
- -$25
No position
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $45.98
- Potential payout
- $46
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $1.95
Yes position
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $43.86
- Potential profit
- $43.86
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$18
No position
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $24.99
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $4.99
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.8
Yes position
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.48
Yes position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.2
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
Ends Mar 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31
Yes position
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Women's Singles Tournament?
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.73
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.5
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.5
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.96
Yes position
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.79
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.61
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.94
Yes position
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.68
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.66
Yes position
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?
Ends Mar 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.3
Yes position
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Tournament?
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.5
Yes position
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.65
Yes position
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.5
Yes position
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.4
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.89
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.5
No position
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.36
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.25
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 53% 29.72 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?No 72.2% 53.78 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?Yes 2.1% 25 shares
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionYes 88% 50 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No 87% 50 shares
- Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?No 80% 25 shares
- Russian strike on Poland by June 30?No 95.7% 46 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?No 83% 25 shares
- Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 93% 4.01 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?Yes 50% 25 shares
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?No 66% 50 shares
- Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?Yes 80.7% 50 shares