Yes position
Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 1–August 8?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$7.35
Polymarket Trader
menagos
0x8b5fe6c4ce4c1f26f470bed6bf4ab721ae239809
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $75.69
- Realized PnL
- $25.05
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $12.94
- Potential payout
- $13.04
- Potential profit
- $0.1
- User PnL
- $0.94
No position
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $125B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $10.89
- Potential payout
- $13.04
- Potential profit
- $2.15
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$1.11
No position
Will Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $12.1
- Potential payout
- $12.13
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- User PnL
- $0.1
Yes position
No one announced as next James Bond?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $11.23
- Potential payout
- $11.24
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $1.23
No position
Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $8.04
- Potential payout
- $8.1
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $6.61
- Potential payout
- $6.61
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $6.45
- Potential payout
- $6.45
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.45
No position
Anthropic acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $4.42
- Potential payout
- $4.49
- Potential profit
- $0.07
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.42
No position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.66
- Potential profit
- $3.66
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $3.01
- Potential payout
- $3.04
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Labcorp Holdings (LH) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Oct 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.25
No position
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment?
Ends Dec 10, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.54
No position
Will Bolsonaro leave Brazil in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.56
No position
Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.14
No position
Evo Morales arrested by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.84
No position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.49
No position
Was JFK assassinated by a foreign government?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41
No position
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.82
Yes position
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Wednesday?
Ends Aug 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.81
No position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.71
No position
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.62
No position
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Wednesday?
Ends Aug 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.6
No position
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
No position
Will sports prediction markets be banned in any U.S. state in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.37
No position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.32
No position
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.32
Yes position
Will MicroStrategy hold 400k+ BTC before 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.22
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 83.7% 6,100 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 28?No 96.1% 5.2 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 28?No 92% 4.35 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 28?No 95% 6.32 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 28?No 77% 6.49 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28?No 82% 3.66 shares
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 28?No 97.1% 6.18 shares
- Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $125B by December 31?No 92% 13.04 shares
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by June 30?No 92% 13.04 shares
- Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?No 93% 6.45 shares
- Evo Morales arrested by May 31?No 83% 10.84 shares
- No one announced as next James Bond?Yes 89% 11.24 shares