Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$10
Polymarket Trader
tom1501
0x8bb188c3f624c914511bd5382974eea756476644
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $291.04
- Realized PnL
- $144.37
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $46.9
- Potential payout
- $158.98
- Potential profit
- $112.08
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$23.45
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $39.65
- Potential payout
- $100.38
- Potential profit
- $60.73
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $1.52
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $24.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $75.5
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$16.5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 46%
- Current value
- $46
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $54
- Multiplier
- 2.17x
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $36.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $63.5
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $22.5
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $77.5
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- -$4.5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $52.48
- Potential payout
- $99.96
- Potential profit
- $47.48
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $5.5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $49.99
- Potential profit
- $49.97
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$27.56
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 77%
- Current value
- $13.95
- Potential payout
- $18.12
- Potential profit
- $4.17
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- -$0.2
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 41%
- Current value
- $6.15
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $8.85
- Multiplier
- 2.44x
- User PnL
- $0.6
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 42%
- Current value
- $1.26
- Potential payout
- $3
- Potential profit
- $1.74
- Multiplier
- 2.38x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Current value
- $1.13
- Potential payout
- $3
- Potential profit
- $1.88
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.57
Yes position
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.7
Yes position
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.88
Yes position
Over $80M committed to the Solomon public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.5
Yes position
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.38
Yes position
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.48
Yes position
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.26
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 5%
- Multiplier
- 20.00x
- User PnL
- $3.53
Yes position
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 19?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.99
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $2.53
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.5
Yes position
Over $1.1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.5
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.2
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $1.66
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.2%
- Multiplier
- 12.27x
- User PnL
- $1.2
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 38%
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 20?
Ends Apr 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.97
Yes position
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.93
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- $0.89
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.81
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $0.4
Yes position
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 25?Yes 50% 10 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24?Yes 57% 5 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24?Yes 56% 5 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24?Yes 56% 5 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24?Yes 30% 8.5 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 24?Yes 40% 8.62 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 25?Yes 84.5% 11.76 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 24?Yes 22% 2.96 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24?Yes 41% 2.44 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24?Yes 41% 0.35 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24?Yes 41% 1.08 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24?Yes 43% 1.63 shares