Polymarket Trader

0x8bf264ed6aB1de6F74046BfB7B9e5D799445C41B-1765399846493

0x8bf264ed6ab1de6f74046bfb7b9e5d799445c41b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $479.05
Realized PnL: $1.32K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 20
Closed positions: 19
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.14K
Potential profit: $4.14K
User PnL: -$2.34K

Yes position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 25.1%
Current value: $479.05
Potential payout: $1.91K
Potential profit: $1.43K
Multiplier: 3.98x
User PnL: $79.05

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $689.66
Potential profit: $689.66
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $194.8
Potential profit: $194.8
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Luigi Mangione mistrial?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $133.33
Potential profit: $133.33
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Santa deliver between 8,300,000,000 and 8,400,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?

Ends Dec 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $86.83
Potential profit: $86.83
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Trump say "Border" while addressing the nation on December 17?

Ends Dec 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.76
Potential profit: $49.76
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.33
User PnL: -$9

No position

Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" while addressing the nation on December 17?

Ends Dec 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.33
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Maduro out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.33
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $31.25
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.3
Potential profit: $30.3
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Trump say "Terrible" or "Horrible" while addressing the nation on December 17?

Ends Dec 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.41
Potential profit: $29.41
User PnL: -$5

No position

U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.79
Potential profit: $28.79
User PnL: -$21

Yes position

Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.29
Potential profit: $23.29
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Trump say "Tax on Tips" while addressing the nation on December 17?

Ends Dec 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Trump say "Eight War" or "Eighth War" while addressing the nation on December 17?

Ends Dec 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.24
Potential profit: $17.24
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $7.69
User PnL: -$2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $402.88

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $320.91

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $317.17

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.2

Yes position

Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.36

Seahawks position

Seahawks vs. Patriots

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.17

Yes position

TikTok sale announced in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.04

Yes position

Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 31?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.15

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $15.32

No position

Will Trump say "Golden Age" while addressing the nation on December 17?

Ends Dec 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.24

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in December?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.24

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in December?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.81

No position

Will Trump say "ISIS" or "Syria" while addressing the nation on December 17?

Ends Dec 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.2

Yes position

Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.25

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.22

Yes position

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.54

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $2.87

Yes position

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.04

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.68

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Yes 21% 1,908.57 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Yes 34% 2,462.24 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Yes 19% 1,157.89 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Yes 23% 1,304.35 shares
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

No 56.6% 4,136.04 shares
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

No 54% 4,333.15 shares
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

No 30.4% 4,333.16 shares
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

No 71.5% 1,845.47 shares
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

No 58.4% 1,845.47 shares
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

No 74.9% 614.75 shares
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

No 48.8% 614.76 shares
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Yes 32% 2,863.26 shares